Friday, November 27, 2009

NFL Week 12 Preview

Two out of the three Thanksgiving games yesterday were predictably abysmal. The Lions showed promise early when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff and Matthew Stafford led them in for the touchdown. After that, it was all Green Bay all afternoon. The Packers defense played very well, forcing 4 interceptions from Stafford yesterday and one of which was returned for a touchdown. The Packers offensive line probably had their best game of the season as they only allowed one sack and protected Aaron Rodgers all day long. This allowed Rodgers to pass for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns, absolutely torturing the Lions secondary and forcing them to lick their wounds over Thanksgiving dinner. Every year, I always think that in spite of how bad the Lions are, they will somehow put together an incredible performance on Thanksgiving that demonstrates the pride and honor of the organization. And every year, I am always let down in one way or another. I hope that Stafford is the savior of the organization. I really do because then we will finally be able to see a Thanksgiving game in Detroit worthy of our time. The same thing applies to the Dallas Cowboys. They were predictably awesome yesterday against a confusing Oakland Raiders team. What was interesting about this game is that the Raiders offense played better than expected. Bruce Gradkowski has 200 yards passing, a touchdown, and did not turn the ball over. The only problem is that they couldn't get any points on the board. Because of that, the Cowboys were able to jump out to a 17-0 halftime lead and never looked back. They knew that they had put up enough points against the Raiders and that all they had to do was coast until the end of the game. Tony Romo had a very nice game as expected, throwing for 309 yards and connecting with Miles Austin and Roy Williams for two touchdowns. The Dallas running game also picked itself up yesterday as Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, and Marion Barber all had at least 60 yards rushing. That's a very nice division among the three backs and they could use that effort if they want to contend with the Vikings and the Saints. This was a game that the Cowboys were expected to win and they did not disappoint as they head into next week's showdown with the New York Giants.

Speaking of the Giants, their game against the Denver Broncos was the most surprising result that emerged from the NFL last night. The Giants were nowhere to be found last night. Sure, there were people on the sidelines wearing the blue and the red with NY attached to the sides of their helmets. But where were the playmakers? Hmm, where were they? I will tell you where they were. They were stuck in New York getting an early start on Thanksgiving dinner because they did not show up last night. Watching the Giants last night was like watching a team hooked on tryptophan. They were lackadaisical at best. Yet lackadaisical is too kind a word to describe last night's performance. The Giants were absolutely HORRIBLE!!! There was no passion on either side of the ball. There was no fire from anyone on the sidelines. There was no sense of urgency from a team that had just come off a dramatic overtime win and seemed ready to turn the ship back in the right direction. Kudos to the Denver Broncos last night for doing everything they were supposed to do. They stopped the run against a pitiful offensive line. They got pressure on Eli Manning and forced him to make errant throws to his receivers. Kyle Orton was able to move the ball methodically without any pressure from the Giants defense. And Brandon Marshall made sensational catch after sensational catch. Everything bad that could possibly happen to the Giants happened last night against the Broncos. And they are a team right now that is simply not ready to contend for a playoff spot. They are now on the precipice of a massive collapse. A loss to the Dallas Cowboys next week will all but seal their doom. In the meantime, the Broncos are right back in the thick of things and have a favorable schedule down the road that could secure them 10 wins or more. Josh McDaniels has his team believing again, proving once more that winning and winning decisively cures all ills.

And now, on to my preview of the NFL's remaining games for Week 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

I think this is where the Falcons' season begins to turn around. As I've mentioned before, four of their remaining six games are at home and they play four teams that have sub-.500 records. The Buccaneers are one of those teams and they play them twice before the season ends. The Falcons were able to move the ball very well last week despite the fact that they lost in overtime. QB Matt Ryan was firing on all cylinders in the final moments of that game, connecting with TE Tony Gonzalez which sent the game into overtime. And I am convinced that if the Falcons had won the coin toss, then they would be going into this game with a 6-4 record and sitting pretty in terms of playoff contention. Look for Matt Ryan to continue his strong play against an inexperienced Buccaneers secondary. The key to their game offensively will be if Jason Snelling starts again in place of Michael Turner and is able to be as effective as he was against the Giants last week. If Snelling is productive, that will allow for the Falcons to open up some playaction and start mixing and matching against the Buccaneers defense. Also, look for the Falcons to have a strong defensive outing and to consistently put pressure on rookie QB Josh Freeman. Freeman will be able to make some plays but certainly not enough to steal a game in the Georgia Dome. Falcons win 31-16

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins saved their season last week with a very convincing win over a seemingly resurgent Carolina Panthers team. Now they travel up to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has been in disarray all season. Ricky Williams had an outstanding game last week against the Panthers. But let's see if he can do it again. Let's see if Ricky can prove that he can be the one who carries the Dolphins on his shoulders all the way to the playoffs. Last week was an excellent first step in the right direction. And against a depleted Bills defense, I expect another big day out of Williams barring any setbacks. I also expect the Dolphins to keep on limiting the Wildcat and allow for Chad Henne to open up the passing game a little more. This will allow for the Dolphins to become more dangerous offensively and will force the Bills to start worrying about the quarterback a little more than the running game. I expect the Dolphins to put up a sound defensive effort against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo running game. They should be able to stop Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, both of whom only managed to rush for 53 yards combined last week against the Jaguars. The key to the game will be if that young Dolphins secondary can stop T.O. and the Buffalo receiving game. They cannot allow Owens to get open downfield and they cannot allow themselves to get hurt by the big play. If they do that, then this game will be too close for comfort for a Miami team looking to maintain position in the playoff hunt. I don't expect the Dolphins to let this one slip away, not when they have a key division showdown next weekend against the Pats. Dolphins win 27-13

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

God help the Cleveland Browns in this game. Last weekend was their moment to shine against the Detroit Lions. They jumped out to a 24-3 early and somehow managed to give that one away. They then were up by 6 with no time remaining on the clock. Stafford fired a desperate Hail Mary into the end zone which was intercepted. Game Over right? WRONG!!! PASS INTERFERENCE!!!!! ONE MORE PLAY!!!!! And what happens? Stafford connects and the Lions steal one from the Browns. These are the things that summarize the Browns season. Even when they play well, they still find ways to lose the game because they do not have enough motivating leadership to guide them all the way to the end. And now they travel to Cincinnati facing off against an angry and embarrassed Bengals team. This game will not even be close. And if it is, that might be the biggest surprise of the weekend. Look for the Bengals defense to come out and just hamstring the Browns offense from start to finish. Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, it doesn't matter who starts at quarterback. This is a game the Bengals know they need to have. And after last week's terrible loss to the Raiders, this has now become a game the Bengals want to have. The Browns might be able to limit the Bengals on the scoreboard for a while. However, the Bengals defense will not let the Browns sniff the end zone on Sunday. And in the end, the Bengals will do their best to leave no doubt on the sidelines once the game is over. Bengals wins 24-0.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

This is a game that would have been more interesting had Marc Bulger not fractured his leg and was out for the remainder of the season. But even with Bulger out, I am still not entirely sold on the Seahawks coming in and winning this game. The Seahawks are a team that have not played well all year. Injuries on both sides of the ball have crippled this team and in spite of many key players returning to action, they simply have not gotten the job done. The Seahawks are 0-5 on the road this season. But that doesn't mean anything because the Rams are 0-5 at home. But the Rams are a team that is playing hard for Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo. This is a team that is doing whatever it can to get a win. Can you say the same about the Seahawks right now? They have been disappointing in all phases offensively, lacking a sound running game that can provide a greater balance for the passing game. WR T.J. Housmanzadeh is definitely regretting not signing with the Vikings this offseason. And the Seattle defense simply hasn't shown up on the road this season. So what do I expect from this game? I expect Steven Jackson to run the ball like a wild man. But since Seattle is very good at stopping the run, and the Rams do not have an effective quarterback that can open up the passing game, I have to give the edge to the Seahawks this weekend. But believe me, my confidence in them is like the weight of tossing a coin. Seahawks win 20-17

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets

These are two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL right now. As mentioned above, the Panthers were a team on the rebound before their devastating loss to the Miami Dolphins last week. Jake Delhomme reverted back to his old ways and coughed up the football in a crucial situation. The Panthers defense could not stop the running game of the Dolphins and dug themselves a hole they simply could not get out of. This week, they face a New York Jets team that has been the epitome of disappointment all season long. They have now lost 6 of their last 7 games and are on the verge of becoming the cellar dwellers of the AFC East should they not start winning games soon. The Jets have the worst quarterback in the NFL right now. All the promise that Mark Sanchez showed in the first three games of the season has now been undercut by the fact that he cannot hold on to the football. Ball security is key to being a successful NFL quarterback. And if Sanchez is going to succeed in this league, he is going to have to learn that as soon as possible. Luckily, he is only a rookie and he has plenty of time to learn. But for now, consider every Jets game from here on in a toss-up game because the wild card will always be the GQ quarterback. In this particular game, look for the Jets to try to establish the run with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. They will try to limit Sanchez as much as possible so as to ensure that he does not throw interceptions. The Panthers defense must stop the run in this game and force Sanchez to throw the ball and win the game through the air. And that will be a tough task for the Jets if they do not establish dominance at the line of scrimmage. As for the Panthers offense, Delhomme must take care of the football as well and make clean throws in order to establish the aerial attack of Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad. They also need Deangelo Williams to have a big game against a Jets defensive line that is weaker without the presence of DL Kris Jenkins. I have a funny feeling that the Jets will be able to shut down the running game and that Delhomme will throw a crucial interception late in the fourth quarter that leads ironically to a Sanchez game-winning drive. Jets win 24-21.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

The Redskins did everything right last week except win the football game. They shut down a talented Cowboy offense and were shutting them out until the final two minutes of the game. This is a concern for the Redskins. They have to be able to finish games off in order to start garnering some respect in the NFL. This year has been especially disappointing for the Redskins in that there have been some games where they've had leads going into the fourth quarter but subsequently blew those leads and could not get another score on the board before the game ended. Last week was just another one of those games. The Redskins defense is certainly talented enough to keep their team in the game the entire way. But their offense has trouble putting points on the board and QB Jason Campbell turns the ball over in crucial situations. This week, they get the Philadelphia Eagles on the road. The Eagles are an inconsistent football team that loses games because of the lackadaisical play calling of Andy Reid. And right now, they are a one-dimensional football team. RB Brian Westbrook is out indefinitely and we're not sure if LeSean McCoy can carry the running game consistently for the remainder of the season. So the Redskins know going in that the Eagles are going to pass the ball, which means they have to put pressure on Donovan McNabb and make sure that he does not have time to get throws off. If they do that, then the Eagles will be forced to rely on McCoy to keep having breakout games on a regular basis. However, McNabb is a versatile quarterback. His ability to scramble out of the pocket and still matriculate the ball down the field is uncanny. He will find DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and he will connect with them down the field. The Redskins are going to have to play spectacular defense to keep up with Philly in this game. And they will need Jason Campbell to step up and make big plays when it counts. This is a division game and it will be close. But in the end, the Eagles will pull away and notch another important victory. Eagles win 23-13.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

I would feel more comfortable predicting the upset in this game had the Texans beaten the Titans last week. But of course, that did not happen. The Texans are one of the most confusing teams in the NFL. It seems like they will give you outstanding efforts on the football field every time. It seems like they are able to compete with the very best in the game. It seems like they have the talent on both sides of the ball to make the playoffs. So then why are the Texans losing football games they should win? They are the definition of underachievement this year in the NFL. There is no excuse why this football team should be sitting at 5-5 with the weapons they have on offense and the speed they have on defense. But yet, here they sit. And who comes marching into Reliant Stadium on Sunday? That would be the undefeated Indianapolis Colts, a team that has already defeated the Texans once this season and has had their number for a very long time. So then why am I sitting here mulling over the idea of an upset? Because the Colts have been holding on to that perfect record by the skin of their teeth lately. Their average margin of victory over the last four games is 5 points. They have not been blowing out teams and I don't expect them to do so on Sunday. The Texans also have the talent to match the Colts offensively. WR Andre Johnson is certainly the most underrated receiver in the NFL and is arguably the best receiver in the NFL. When he and QB Matt Schaub are on target together, they are as lethal as any QB/WR duo in the league. The key to this game for the Texans will be if Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats will be as lethal as the Texans passing game. Will the offensive line be able to shut down Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis for long stretches of time in this game? Or will the Colts defense inflict its will and completely dominate the line of scrimmage? If the Colts win up front, the Texans are not going to win this game on Sunday. But if its back and forth all day, then we are destined for a shootout. And who are you going to take in a shootout? Jon Gruden calls him The Sheriff and rightly so. You take Peyton Manning any day of the week. It will not be the Colts defense that seals the victory this week. This week will be vintage Peyton leading the Colts to that game-winning drive that maintains perfection and shuts the door on the Texans' playoff chances. Colts win 27-24.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

The Chiefs are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Steelers. They are riding high with a little bit of energy and confidence, believing they can now play with any team in the NFL. The Chargers will swiftly eliminate that confidence. QB Matt Cassell and WR Chris Chambers have made for a very nice combination on the offensive side of the ball for the Chiefs. And RB Jamaal Charles picked up the slack left by Larry Johnson, acting as a vital part to the Chiefs' success last weekend. This weekend will not be as successful. The Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL right now. They are coming off a decisive victory over the Denver Broncos. LaDainian Tomlinson is playing his best football in a long time and is looking like the L.T. of old. And for the Kansas City Chiefs, that is a really bad thing. Combine that with Philip Rivers, who is making great decisions with the football and has been a great manager of the game for the Chargers. His stats are not flashy a la Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. But he gets the job done when the game is on the line and is truly one of the most passionate quarterbacks in the NFL today. Look for Rivers and Tomlinson to have good games against the Chiefs on Sunday. And look for the Charger defense to have another outstanding effort. Chris Chambers will be determined to have a good game against his former team. But don't count on it. The Chargers are well on their way to the playoffs and will most likely get there riding high on an 11-game winning streak. Chargers win 31-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers

This is a very difficult game to predict simply because its not being played in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, squeaking by opponents and thrusting themselves smack dab in the middle of the playoff hunt. Maurice Jones-Drew is having an incredible season as the feature back for the Jaguars, using his strength and quickness to overpower defensive players and find his way into the endzone. And for a Jaguars offense looking for an identity, Jones-Drew has provided them with a dangerous weapon in the backfield. The question mark with the Jaguars all season has always been how effective the passing game can be. Granted, Mike Sims-Walker has emerged as a breakout receiver this season. And Torry Holt has brought stability to a receiving core that was very lackluster before the season began. But when it comes to the latter stages of the season, when it comes to these kinds of games that they should win, will these receivers step up and make plays down the field? And that is what makes this game very interesting. The 49ers are very talented on the defensive side of the ball and will be relying on them to win this game on Sunday. San Francisco has demonstrated that if their defense does not play well, then they will not win the football game because their offense does not have enough explosiveness to dig themselves out a hole and come back to win the game. They are a running team first and foremost and in order for them to be more dynamic on offense, Alex Smith cannot be their quarterback of the future. As for this game right here, look for the Jaguars to move the ball effectively against the 49ers defense. Look for Jones-Drew to find the end zone early and for the Jaguars to distance themselves on the scoreboard. This will force Smith to throw the football early and for the 49ers to get away from their offensive game plan, which will be to attack the Jaguars defense with Frank Gore. The Niners will be forced to play catch up, which is something they haven't been good at all season. Jaguars win 23-14.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

This is a game that would have been far more interesting earlier in the season. I'm sure the schedule makers did not foresee the Chicago Bears falling into oblivion before they met Favre and company. But sadly, that is where we stand as of today. The Bears all but lost their season last Sunday on a Jay Cutler interception no less. So what are they playing for now? Pride? Victory? What are these terms for the Bears? They have not played for either all season long. Why should they start now? Jay Cutler has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. His gunslinging mentality has cost the Bears many a game that they possibly should have won. But Cutler is not the only problem the Bears have. Their inability to establish the running game all season has forced Cutler to throw the ball more than he wants to. Rookie sensation Matt Forte is going through a sophomore slump, managing just one 100-yard rushing performance this entire season. And for a team that is committed to running the football and establish dominance at the line of scrimmage, Forte has let his team down in a big way this season. Also, the Bears have been mediocre on the defensive side of the ball all season. The loss of Brian Urlacher hurt them profoundly and they have not been the same since. Offenses face the Bears defense and are no longer intimidated by them. Tommie Harris is not the same player he once was, preventing the Bears from truly stuffing the middle. The Bears secondary is accustomed now to giving up the big play when it counts, which forces Cutler into pressure situations he is uncomfortable with. And this week, they get a Vikings team that is perhaps playing the best football in the NFL right now. Brett Favre is known for making big plays and is having an MVP season with 21 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Adrian Peterson has been Adrian Peterson. The Vikings offensive line is one of the best in the NFL being led by G Steve Hutchinson. And their defense is also one of the best in the game, with two veteran run stuffers in the Williams boys and one monster linebacker in Jaret Allen. The Bears are outmatched against the Vikings this weekend, and it will show on the football field. Look for Cutler to keep throwing interceptions. Look for Favre to have a big day zipping the ball to Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a stellar performance against an average Bear defensive line. And look for the Vikings to plow their way to 10-1 in decisive fashion. Vikings win 34-13.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans

This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend. You have a Cardinals team that has been perfect on the road all season long. And you have a Titans team that has won four in a row since starting the season 0-6. Something's gotta give in this game. Which one will it be? I'm inclined to go with Arizona in this game. And here's why. Granted the Titans have been playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. Chris Johnson is tearing it up offensively, leading the league in rushing over the first 10 weeks of the season. Vince Young has returned in a big way, managing the game really well for the Titans on offense and making plays when he has to. The difference between the Vince Young of old and the Vince Young right now is that he is not turning the football over. Young is not making mistakes with the football and this is doing wonders for his confidence. He feels like he can take this team to the promised land because the Titans are not relying on him to do all the work. But here is why I think the Titans will lose this game. The Cardinals are ranked 8th in the league in stopping the run. That has been the strength of their defense all season long. Their commit their energy to stopping the run and force teams to pass the ball on them. I think the Cardinals will be so committed to stopping Chris Johnson offensively that Vince Young will be forced to make plays down the field and win the game in the clutch. Is he up to doing that? Yes, he led the Titans down the field on a game-winning drive last Monday. But can he do it consistently? The Cardinals are ranked 27th in the NFL in passing defense so Young might have plenty of opportunities to do so. Also, while the Titans are ranked 9th in the NFL in stopping the run, they are ranked 31st in passing defense. That will spell doom for the Titans on Sunday. Kurt Warner will dissect the Titans secondary and will find Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston over the middle and down the sidelines many times on Sunday. The Cardinals will put their share of points on the board and should be successful at stopping Chris Johnson. The key will be for Vince Young to find his receivers when it counts and to match the Cardinals on the scoreboard. Can he do that? I don't think so. Cardinals win 31-20.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

This game just got far more interesting and perhaps more beneficial for the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Reports out of Pittsburgh indicate that Ben Roethlisberger will sit Sunday, which means that Dennis Dixon will make his first-career start in the NFL. And guess who's on the welcoming committee for Mr. Dixon? Ummm that would be Ray Lewis anchoring an angry Ravens defense that did enough to lead their team to victory last weekend against the Colts. This is going to be an emotional game for the Ravens coming off that tough loss to Indy. They want and need this game in the worst way. And with Roethlisberger out on Sunday, the Ravens have a chance to put the Steelers season in dire straits. Look for the Steelers to get back to what they do best, which is run the football. Will Rashard Mendenhall be able to carry the load and establish a presence on the offensive side of the ball? He's going to have to do that if the Steelers are going to win this game on the road. If he can't do that, then the Steelers will be forced to rely on Dixon to air it out on the sidelines and scramble out of the pocket. And being that this is his first NFL start and he is facing a defense known for their intensity and perseverance, Head Coach Mike Tomlin does not want to put Dixon in that position. However, the Steelers are getting some help from the Ravens because their offense has seemingly been unable to put the ball in the end zone. Joe Flacco has not thrown a passing touchdown in his last three outings, which means that the Ravens will also be committed to running the football. The Steelers have the best rush defense in the NFL right now and should be able to contain Ray Rice and/or Willis McGahee at the line of scrimmage. This will force Joe Flacco to find the end zone and get his team in position to put points on the scoreboard. This is going to be a low scoring game. The team that puts one touchdown on the board will emerge victorious. Which one will it be? Recent history favors the Steelers in this game, but the loss of Big Ben hurts them immensely. Dennis Dixon is unproven whereas Joe Flacco has been tested in big-game situations. Both teams are fighting to maintain their position in the playoff race. Its too close to call....I'm gonna go with the Steelers by a field goal in what should be a defensive struggle from start to finish. Steelers win 13-10.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

The game of the week....that's an understatement right there. This is perhaps the game of the year. In one corner, you have the challenger. From the Big Easy, with a undefeated record of 10-0 and looking to make that run at perfection, the Bayou Bloodhounds, the New Orleans Saints!!! In the other corner, the champion. From Foxboro, Massachusetts. A team that has already made that run at perfection and is looking to play the role of spoiler, the Boston Cream Pies, the New England Patriots. This is a game that will test the might of the Saints in a big way. In order to be the best, they are going to have to beat the best. And the Patriots are one of the very best in the NFL. This is a team that should have handed the Colts their first loss two weeks ago. This is a team that is red hot on the offensive side of the ball. Tom Brady has worked out the mechanical problems that plagued him at the start of the season and has returned to performing at the level we expect him to. Not only does he have Randy Moss to air it out to downfield, but he also has Wes Welker, the best slot receiver in the NFL today. Welker has emerged as a beast on the offensive side of the ball. He is an unstoppable force that Brady loves to connect with over the middle because defenses are so focused on containing the deep threat in Randy Moss. If the Saints are going to win this game on Monday night, they will need to shut down Wes Welker. And that is going to be very tough to do. Laurence Maroney had a good game last week against the Jets. He will need to be effective once more against the Saints and provide balance to the Patriots offensive strategy. But I'm not worried about the Patriots scoring points because they will certainly get their fair share on Monday night. What I'm worried about is how that potent and lethal Saints offense will respond against a Patriots defense that will throw everything but the kitchen sink at Drew Brees and company. Bill Belichick will have his defense well-prepared and ready for the Saints on Monday night. The key for the Saints will be with their running game. Will Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell be able to find their running lanes up the middle and stretch it out for big plays? If they do, this will open up the door for Drew Brees to start confusing the Patriots as much as possible and to start airing it out to his weapons downfield. The key for the Patriots will be if they can get pressure on Brees and force him to get rid of the ball a lot quicker than he would want to. They also need to be aggressive against the Saints receiving core and will need to go after the football as much as possible. If the Saints are able to stretch the field decisively with their receivers, and if Drew Brees has enough time in the pocket to make his throws, then the Saints will win this game hands down. But I expect a strong performance from the Patriots defense. Granted the Saints will get on the scoreboard and will be riding that home crowd all night long. But in the end, I think it comes down to Brady, Moss, and Welker in the final two minutes with the game on the line. Would you really pick the Saints defense to make a big stop in that situation? If they do, then the Saints will come out of Monday night as the best team in the NFL. But I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Gisele's love muffin. Undefeated season gone...perfection ruined. Patriots win 27-24.

That's all for now. Enjoy this weekend in sports. Should be a great one.







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