Saturday, January 23, 2010

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints















This is the most underrated and unappreciated game of the weekend simply because some expect the Jets to upset the Colts in the AFC Championship Game. Yet this NFC Championship game features a matchup between the two best teams in the conference, both of whom are very well-balanced offensively and have many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. The Saints carry the #1 ranked offense in the NFL and are coming off a bloody massacre of the Arizona Cardinals last weekend. After tearing apart the Cardinals defense for 45 points last weekend, the Saints are coming into this game feeling extremely confident in their ability to score points on any defensive unit. They will no doubt be riding high on the shoulders of an electrifying crowd on Sunday night, a passionate fan base yearning to see the Vince Lombardi trophy delivered to their magical city. This is without question the biggest sports venue in the history of New Orleans. Fans will come in droves to watch Drew Brees hopefully carry this Saints team to their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. But I have a feeling that it will take a godlike effort from Brees to overcome the tenacity and the relentless intensity of an overpowering Vikings defense.

This is a Vikings defense coming off a magnificent performance against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend. They attacked Tony Romo in the pocket from the very beginning and never took their foot off the pedal. Jared Allen was a beast at the line of scrimmage, breaking off tackles and causing havoc for Romo in the pocket. Romo was never able to establish a comfort zone or a rhythm against the Vikings, which resulted in six sacks and three turnovers. The Vikings made a statement against the Cowboys, proving why they earned the right to be considered one of the final four teams remaining in this year's playoffs. They will need another stellar defensive performance on Sunday against the Saints if they are going to survive their trip down to New Orleans. The Vikings have struggled in developing a consistency on the road this season. All of their losses came on the road this season, which will certainly make this NFC Championship Game a very compelling endeavor for the Vikings on Sunday. In order to be the best this season, the Vikings will have to win in the most hostile environment in all of pro football. And the only way they will be able to accomplish such a feat is if they establish dominance on the defensive side of the ball. Forget about the offense. Everyone knows that Brett Favre will have his share of opportunities to put points on the scoreboard against this undersized and overmatched Saints defense. What is important for the Vikings in this game is if they will be able to collapse Brees in the pocket, completely eradicating his rhythm to the point where he loses comfort in the pocket and is forced to make throws on the run. Brees is perhaps the 2nd best pocket passer in the NFL right now, second only to Peyton Manning. This means that the Vikings will have their hands full trying to contain him in this game if they are not able to establish a pass rush.

The Saints certainly have the power to distance themselves on the scoreboard, which was clearly illustrated last week against the Cardinals. They are built to win by outscoring their opponents rather than playing a stout defensive game. This is why they are reminiscent of the early Colts teams under Peyton Manning i.e. the ones that always fell short in the big game because of their inability to play defense and stop their opponents. And if the Saints truly want to establish themselves as one of the great teams in NFL history this season, then they will need to have an impressive game defensively and prevent the Vikings from generating any momentum at the line of scrimmage. That will be a very tough task against a Vikings team that is very proficient at putting points on the scoreboard. While the Saints were ranked 1st in points per game with just over 31, the Vikings were right behind them with just over 29. While the Saints were ranked 1st in total offense, the Vikings were three spots behind them. So it is fair to say that this game has the makings of a potentially classic shootout for the right to go to the Super Bowl. And the script couldn't be written more beautifully for Brett Favre. Act I has already been completed with a 12-4 record and a division title. Act II resulted in a 34-3 thumping of the Cowboys at home, a game in which Favre threw for 234 yards and 4 touchdowns. And now it is time for Act III, with Favre returning to the city of his birth in hopes of leading another team to the Super Bowl and continuing to make his case as the best quarterback of all time.

But which Favre will show up in this game? Will it be the Favre who has a four touchdown game and an impeccable quarterback rating? Or will it be the Favre who throws game-changing interceptions and costs his team a shot at football glory? The Saints are hoping for the latter. And the way they will hope to accomplish that is by jamming Sidney Rice and Visante Shiancoe at the line of scrimmage, limiting their production from the onset of the snap and forcing Favre to look for alternative options throughout the course of the game. Sidney Rice has had a breakout season for the Vikings, emerging as one of the best young receivers in the game thanks to the presence of Favre at the quarterback position. The most intriguing matchup of the day may involve how well Jabari Greer contains Rice at the point of attack. If Greer and Darren Sharper are able to neutralize the deep threat, then Favre will either have to open up the passing game by including Shiancoe over the middle and Percy Harvin out of the slot. But even though Harvin will be able to play in this game, one wonders how effective he will be considering he has been questionable all week with migraine headaches. This will force Favre to either become the gunslinger we all know and love or, surprise surprise, feed the ball to Adrian Peterson.

Adrian Peterson may very well be the key to a Vikings win on Sunday. He has not been much of a factor as of late because the Vikings have evolved into more of a passing team over the last few weeks. But if the Saints are successful in containing Favre and are forcing him to make bad decisions in the pocket, then Peterson will have to step up and show the world why he is the best running back in the NFL today. This is a matchup that will certainly favor the Vikings because the Saints were inefficient at stopping the run all season long. Look for the Vikings to establish their dominance at the line of scrimmage, creating running lanes for Peterson and Chester Taylor so as to take the pressure off Favre in this game. Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt will have to attack Will Smith and Bobby McCray, pushing them away from the plays and forcing Scott Fujita and Jonathan Vilma to commit to the pass rush. Steve Hutchinson and John Sullivan will need to plow through Sedrick Ellis and Remi Ayodele at the line of scrimmage, giving Favre time to operate in the pocket and allowing Peterson to make moves when he has to. If Peterson and Taylor are able to break free for long runs, then the Saints will be overmatched defensively and will be forced to keep their eyes open for every aspect of that Vikings offensive juggernaut.

Everybody knows that Drew Brees will be a monster in the pocket on Sunday night. He will look to pick apart that Vikings secondary by zipping the ball to Marques Colston for long gains down the sidelines and dumping it off to Lance Moore and Devery Henderson over the middle. This is how the Saints have been able to win games all season long; by knocking out opponents early with their passing game and forcing opposing offenses to catch up with them on the scoreboard. Yet the key for the Saints offensively will be the combination of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Bush had a tremendous game against the Cardinals last weekend, proving to be a valuable asset out of the backfield with his deceptive speed and agility. Bush ran for 81 yards and a touchdown as the Saints mixed and match to produce 171 yards rushing against the Cardinals. Bush also had an 83-yard punt return for a touchdown that crushed any hopes for the Cardinals to make a comeback last week. If the Saints are going to win this game, then Bush will need to step up once more, proving to the world why he was so coveted back in the 2006 NFL Draft. The Saints will also need Pierre Thomas to pound the ball hard up the middle against the Williams boys, which will be a seemingly impossible task. The Williams boys were vital parts of a well-oiled Vikings machine, boasting the 2nd best run defense in the NFL. If the Saints' offensive line is able to stop them and inflict their will at the line of scrimmage, then there is no doubt in my mind that the Saints will be packing their bags for a trip to Miami in two weeks.

How will this game unfold? One could pretty much flip a coin to decide the winner because it will be that close. It is very hard to look past the fact that all of the Vikings' losses this season have been on the road. And in all of those losses, they appeared to be a very unbalanced team with lackadaisical offensive play and lethargic defensive prowess. The Superdome is the most difficult place to play in the NFL and it will be the loudest it's ever been on Sunday for this NFC Championship Game. Favre will be wearing the plays on his wrist for the first time this season as the Vikings will operate with silent counts to hopefully eliminate the crowd factor. There is no doubt in my mind that the Vikings can compete with the Saints on the scoreboard. But will the noise elements sink in to the point where the Vikings are systematically unable to develop a rhythm in this game? I think Favre has enough NFL experience to know how to tune out the crowd in games of this magnitude. I think he will come out with a big game on Sunday as the Saints will be unable to generate a hefty pass rush with consistency. But the fate of the Vikings rests in the hands of their own pass rush. Jared Allen and Ray Edwards have to be magnificent all day long against this Saints offensive line. They will need to be in Brees' face, literally staring at him and throwing him to the ground before he can connect with his receivers. Many experts will agree that if there is any weakness to the Saints' offensive arsenal, it exists with their offensive tackles. Jermon Bushrod and Jonathan Stinchcomb will need to come up big and have the game of their lives in containing that Vikings pass rush. Will they be able to accomplish that? I have a strong feeling that the answer is no. As a result, the Saints will have problems establishing consistency on the offensive side of the ball to the point where the Vikings may eventually distance themselves on the scoreboard. Yet Brees will have enough fiery spirit and leadership to keep the Saints alive in this game. And in the end, it just may come down to a game-winning drive from Favre, setting up Ryan Longwell for the chance to go to Super Bowl XLIV. This has the potential to be a contest for the ages, one certainly worthy enough to be called an NFC Championship Game.

FINAL SCORE: VIKINGS 31, SAINTS 30

AFC Championship Game: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts















This game reflects the ultimate battle of wills: Offense vs. Defense, Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan, the powerhouse Colts against the upstart Jets for the right to go to Super Bowl XLIV. There are very few people who figured the Jets would make it this far off a 9-7 season. Hell, that number is probably close to zero. Yet here they stand on the eve of the AFC Championship Game, preparing to do battle with a quarterback who may go down as the best ever at his position. The only thing the Jets have is the confidence attributed to them through victories over the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Diego Chargers. That is what Rex Ryan preached all week to the media and that will be the key to a Jets victory on Sunday. Let's face it. The Colts are by far the better team on paper and should walk out of this game with an easy victory. So why are some experts predicting an upset the likes of which have remained unseen since the days of Joe Namath and Johnny Unitas? Why are some experts thinking that the Jets can walk into Lucas Oil Stadium, outduel the so-called "sheriff" in Peyton Manning, and advance to their first Super Bowl in forty years? Because a tidal wave of momentum rests on their side. Because the Jets believe they have the defensive arsenal capable of neutralizing Manning all day long. And because they have a power-running game that could take time off the clock and keep Manning off the field. The Jets are built to defeat the Colts, or at least post a significant challenge to their Super Bowl aspirations. There are some experts who are comparing this Jets playoff run to the New York Giants of two years ago. And in some ways, that is true. The Jets play extremely well on the defensive side of the ball and are able to get pressure on the quarterback. How did the Giants win in 2007? By having three pass rushers in Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck get to Brady over and over and over again. The Jets are going to need a pash rush to defeat Manning on Sunday. And while they are prolific at stopping the run and trapping receivers on the infamous Revis Island, do not expect Manning to falter on the precipice of a possible Super Bowl winning season.

Believe it or not, the Colts have something to prove in this game as well. They have been flying high under the radar all week, with the Jets doing most of the talking and the spotlight placed on their boisterous head coach. Everyone agrees that the only reason the Jets made the playoffs this year is because the Colts abandoned their shot at 16-0. They rested their starters in the third quarter of that Week 16 game and gave a early Christmas present to the city of New York. I know Jets fans are probably sick and tired of hearing how they eased their way into the playoffs. And the Jets would love nothing better than to show the world how they can beat Peyton Manning for a full 60 minutes rather than destroy Curtis Painter for half a game. But let's examine this from the Colts perspective? The Colts have shown their cards and have gone all in on a winning hand. They folded their chance of being considered the greatest team in NFL history in favor of a more lucrative prize. And now all their cards will be on the table for this AFC Championship Game. They will not take their foot off the pedal and are motivated to show the Jets how Christmas is over. GM Bill Polian and the entire Colts organization have so much riding on this game because they stated to their fans and to the rest of the football world that a Super Bowl title is more important than perfection. In order to validate their philosophy, they cannot stumble against the Jets on Sunday. They must take their show on the road to Miami, returning to the place where Manning won his first Super Bowl in 2006. The board is set for Manning to make his move, for the Colts to prove how their philosophy works and how all the skeptics and the naysayers can return to their impenetrable closets. This AFC Championship Game is the chess match of a lifetime. Who will survive the ultimate battle of wills?

Everybody knows the Jets will come out with an aggressive game plan defensively on Sunday. Yet the key to their success will be on the offensive side of the ball. This is the biggest game of Mark Sanchez's career, a phrase that continues to evolve on a weekly basis. He has been very efficient for the Jets throughout this postseason, managing the game very well and not turning the football over. In fact, I would argue how that is the main reason why the Jets have managed to last this long in the playoffs. I'm sure everyone has been waiting for Sanchez to screw up in a monumental way by either not securing the football or by throwing a crucial interception with the game on the line. Yet he has surprisingly done none of those things, emerging as a very calm and collected quarterback in the face of tremendous pressure to win in the playoffs. As a result, one could argue that Sanchez is the underrated factor in this game. In their win against the Bengals, Sanchez connected with Dustin Keller for a 45-yard touchdown that opened up the game for the Jets offensively. In their win against the Chargers, he found Keller again in the endzone off a Rivers interception, which changed the flow of the game and put the Jets in a very comfortable position offensively. Granted Sanchez did throw an interception against the Chargers. However, the ineptitude of Rivers and company to find any rhythm in the 2nd half saved Sanchez from making any costly mistakes. It would be very interesting if the Jets came out passing the ball on Sunday. No one expects them to do anything but pound the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. But what of Mark Sanchez? I don't think it's that inconceivable to turn the dogs loose and let Sanchez roam free in the pocket. It will catch the Colts off guard and force them to play a multi-faceted defensive game. Look for Sanchez to connect on short dig routes to Dustin Keller over the middle. But also expect him to look for Braylon Edwards down the field and Jerricho Cotchery running slant routes that will make for effective 10-12 yard gains.

The Jets know that they will have score at least 20 points to beat the Colts on Sunday. The only way that will happen is if Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer take chances with Sanchez in the pocket. I'm not arguing that they should completely abandon the run because that would be ludicrous. The Jets boast the best running attack in the NFL, which means the basis of their offensive game plan should be focused in between the tackles and up the middle of the field. They want to take away the pass rush of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis by utilizing Jones and Greene out of the backfield. Also, expect a lot of Brad Smith on Sunday. The Jets will look to confuse the Colts as much as possible with their offensive schemes. They want Gary Brackett to scramble out of coverage, forcing him to react quickly to different formations. But they want to overpower the Colts at the line of scrimmage, creating huge running lanes and matriculating the ball down the field in a timely fashion. The Jets will look to muster a similar offensive game plan to the one the Dolphins organized in Week 2 when they played the Colts. The Dolphins kept feeding the ball to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, holding onto the football for over 45 minutes. The reason they lost that game was because every time Manning had the ball, he led the Colts down the field and put touchdowns on the board. The Jets have a much better defense than the Dolphins and will be able to contain Manning at some points in this game. This means that the key for the Jets will be if they are dominant in controlling the time of possession. If the Jets hold on the football as much as possible and score touchdowns instead of field goals, then they will win this game by keeping Manning off the field and forcing him to make plays against their #1 ranked defense every time he touches the ball.

Experts are looking to promote this AFC Championship Game as a matchup between the Colts offense and the Jets defense. From a more singular perspective, they are billing it as a heavyweight bout between Peyton Manning and Darrelle Revis. This is going to be Revis's toughest assignment to date because he not only has to deal with the intelligence of Peyton Manning, but he also has to contain the NFL's best route runner in Reggie Wayne. Wayne has the ability to shift his body at the line of scrimmage, manipulating cornerbacks to a point where they lose control and break off the route. He can burn teams with the deep threat while also proving to be an effective receiver anywhere on the field. It is fair to say that the matchup between Darrelle Revis and Reggie Wayne will be the most compelling to watch on Sunday because Wayne will be able to outrun Revis at the point of attack, making cutbacks five or six yards off the line of scrimmage and forcing Revis to chase him all over the field. Yet there will be times when Revis controls Wayne at the line of scrimmage and prevents him from generating any momentum down the field. He will utilize Wayne to his advantage and dictate how often Manning looks his way on Sunday. And it is in these moments where the Jets defenders will have to come up big against the other weapons in the Colts offensive arsenal. Lito Sheppard must have the game of his life on Sunday in containing Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon. There is no doubt in my mind that Manning will look for all of these receivers, hoping to compensate for Wayne's inability to escape from Revis Island. Now the Jets will also use Revis in their coverage against Dallas Clark much in the same way they used him against Antonio Gates last week. It is in these moments where Manning will look for Reggie Wayne, which means that Sheppard and Kerry Rhodes will have to patrol the middle of the field with extreme caution. They will have to force the Colts receivers off their routes and make them break along the sidelines, providing Manning with a very slim window to throw the ball into. And of course, they will need to generate a pass rush.

How will the Jets generate a pass rush? By blitzing Peyton Manning to no end on Sunday. Rex Ryan is a coach who lives and dies on the blitz and he will attempt to establish dominance early by throwing Manning off his rhythm and forcing panic and chaos in the pocket. Yet one of the reasons why this is a compelling matchup is that Manning is very efficient when working against the blitz. The blitz doesn't phase him and he is just as lethal against that defensive package as he is against any other scheme. What does this mean for the Jets? It means that when Rex Ryan sends the full force of his defense upon Peyton Manning, they will need to bring him to the ground. It will take a full defensive effort to make sure that Manning is inefficient in the pocket because he doesn't miss his receivers whenever he throws the ball. Bart Scott and David Harris must seal the pocket and drag Manning to the ground. Kerry Rhodes and Justin Leohnard must step up and contain, which will force Manning to react indecisively in the pocket. It is very rare for Manning to have an inaccurate game throwing the football. The Jets were the beneficiaries of one of those games the last time these two teams met. Yet this is the AFC Championship Game, the time where quarterbacks step into the spotlight and write their own legacies. Manning is in the prime of his career and wants another Super Bowl to widen his legacy. Do not expect anything other than a big game from him on Sunday. Yet in order for the Jets to win this game, their cornerbacks will need to take the Colts receivers off their routes whenever they send a pass rush. They want Manning to miss his receivers and they want him to throw incompletions. This will lead to stalled drives and plenty of opportunities for the Jets to make some noise in Lucas Oil Stadium. Anything other than their A-game will be detrimental to their chances of going to the Super Bowl.

How will this game unfold? As I mentioned before, there are a lot of experts and fans out there drawing parallels between this Jets team and the Giants team of two years ago. Yet if I were to compare them to any team, I would compare them to last year's Baltimore Ravens team that went to the AFC Championship Game and lost to the Steelers. Just look at the similarities between this year's Jets team and last year's Ravens team: rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez vs. Joe Flacco), rookie head coach (Rex Ryan vs. John Harbaugh), stout defense and efficient running attack. All of these reflect the style and substance in which both teams were able to produce results and find success. And just like last year's Ravens team, I think the cinderella story of the New York Jets comes to an end on Sunday. I know I've been predicting it to end for a couple weeks now only to have my predictions foiled by outstanding defensive play and good decisions from the quarterback. Yet I think the Jets will revert back to the team that started 4-6. They will be unable to stop Manning with the game on the line as he will make plays to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon for big plays over the middle and along the sidelines. The Colts will pound the ball at the goal line with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown and will put their share of points on the scoreboard against this Jets defense. Manning will have enough time in the pocket to find his receivers as the Jets pass rush will come up short in the clutch. The Jets will make it interesting by hammering the Colts at the line of scrimmage with terrific play from their offensive line and a balanced running attack. But I think that the pressure of winning the big game will finally get to Sanchez as he will make one too many mistakes in this contest. The Colts will shut the mouths of Jets fans everywhere on Sunday by proving to everyone how the Jets cannot defeat them after a full 60 minutes. And in the end, Peyton Manning will be planning another trip to Miami, with visions of the Lombardi Trophy dancing on his head.

FINAL SCORE: COLTS 23, JETS 13

Saturday, January 16, 2010

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
















The New York Jets can base their success on two things: they run the football very well and they play excellent defense. These are the two reasons why Rex Ryan thinks his team can represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Granted the only reason the Jets are in the playoffs is because the Colts gave up on 16-0, but that's an entirely different story. The Jets proved that they belong among the best with an impressive victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Mark Sanchez surprisingly displayed a maturity that has been uncharacteristic of him all season long. He managed the game very well and let the running game control the offensive production. He will need to be just as efficient on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers. The Jets match up very well with the Chargers and can cause havoc for them on both sides of the ball. The Jets love to pound the ball up the middle with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, something that the Chargers don't respond very well to. The Chargers are a more finesse defensive unit, relying on their pass rush to force mistakes and halt the production of opposing offenses. During the regular season, the Chargers were ranked 20th in stopping the run. This means that the Jets should have no problem manipulating the line of scrimmage to their advantage. With monsters like Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold anchoring the middle of the offensive line, the Jets certainly have a chance to be more physical than the Chargers in this game. This will put added pressure on Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to stuff the middle and plug up the running lanes, which is something very few teams have been able to do against the Jets. Should they find success, then the Jets will have a tough time generating a rhythm in this game because it will force Sanchez to chase the deep threat to Braylon Edwards way too often. Last time I checked, Edwards loves to either drop the ball or get thrown off his coverage very easily. He will have a tough time against Quentin Jammer on Sunday if the Jets are forced to call on him to make plays down the field. The strength of the Jets offense, besides their running game, is their ability to utilize Dustin Keller with dig routes over the middle or Jerricho Cotchery along the edge. They want Sanchez to manage the game well and nothing more. Anything else will be very disastrous, perhaps even costing the Jets a shot at the AFC Championship.

But let's think about the San Diego Chargers for a minute. This is a team that hasn't lost a game in three months. THREE MONTHS!!! That's a really long time in the NFL. Why haven't they lost a game in three months? Because they boast one of the more talented and cohesive units in the entire league. They are well-balanced on both sides of the football and do not shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. The Chargers are able to grind out victories, battling their opponent to the very end and always illustrating how they are the better team. It also helps that they have a perennial MVP candidate as their quarterback. There are many people out there who believe that Philip Rivers had a better season than Peyton Manning, who collected his 4th MVP award just the other day. When one looks at his statistics, one could easily build an argument for Rivers and showcase how he is the unquestioned leader of that football team. Rivers finished the season with over 4000 yards passing and 28 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. However, his best characteristic is how clutch he is when the game is on the line. Rivers is one of those quarterbacks who loves to capitalize on game-winning drives in the final two minutes. As I recall, he did it three times this year against the Raiders, Giants, and Bengals. But there have been many times in his career where Rivers has taken his team down the field and scored in the final two minutes. He doesn't miss a beat, which is something that only the elite quarterbacks are able to accomplish in this league. Rivers and the Chargers offense will have their hands full against all of Rex Ryan's schemes and blitzes on Sunday. Ryan will throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Chargers, making sure that Rivers doesn't beat him with the deep throw or establish a rhythm inside the pocket. In fact, the Jets should have no problem in containing the deep threat on Sunday. Those who go into Revis Island never come out alive. The same will be said about Vincent Jackson after this game. Revis has shut down every big-name receiver thrown his way this season. He held Chad Ochocinco to just 2 receptions for 28 yards in two games. And guess what, both catches came in last week's Wild Card contest. Revis should have won Defensive Player of the Year over Charles Woodson. But I think it's safe to say that Revis will be in the conversation for defensive accolades in many years to come. Revis will have no problem shutting down Vincent Jackson, which means that Rivers will look elsewhere to generate some offensive production.

The most important assets for the Chargers in this game will be Antonio Gates and Darren Sproles. Forget LaDainian Tomlinson. He will be like the worm at the end of a fishing pole, pounding it up the middle to deceive the Jets at the line of scrimmage. Look for Rivers to launch the playaction very early in this game as the Chargers will want to establish Sproles immediately out of the backfield. The Jets boast the best run defense in the NFL, which means that Tomlinson will have a hard time generating momentum at the line of scrimmage. There will be times when the Jets stifle the Chargers running game. That's just a given they will have to accept. What will kill the Jets defensively is the speed of Sproles out of the backfield; his ability to run along the sidelines and scamper out of the backfield will hamper the Jets for big plays early in the game. When Rivers discovers that the pocket is collapsing and that David Harris and Bart Scott are plugging up the middle of the field, he will dump it off to Sproles along the sidelines. This will force the Jets to react quickly, relying on their speed to catch up with Sproles. The problem for the Jets is that Sproles is deceptively fast. His cutback ability, combined with his intelligence as a running back, make him a very useful asset out of the backfield for the Chargers. But that's not all. If the Jets plug Kerry Rhodes to cover Antonio Gates, then they will be eaten alive over the middle of the field. The Jets cannot put Rhodes over Gates, who has a distinct height advantage and will certainly be more physical against Rhodes at the line of scrimmage. The Jets will not have to double cover Vincent Jackson because they know Revis will get the job done. This means they can commit Jim Leonhard to double coverage on Gates or use Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas as extra defenders at the line of scrimmage. The key to this game will be how well Rivers reacts to the pass rush and his inability to find Jackson with the deep ball. If the Jets are able to get significant pressure on him, it will force the Chargers to rethink their game plan and will most definitely eliminate any kind of rhythm.

In spite of how well the Jets have played defensively this year, they are going to have their hands full taking Rivers out of the game. Even though they have enough talent to blow past the Chargers at the line of scrimmage, they do not have the speed necessary to contain Darren Sproles. Nor do they have another shut-down corner that can contain Antonio Gates over the middle. Should the Jets successfully manage to patrol the middle of the field, it will put pressure on Malcolm Floyd to emerge as the deep threat along the sidelines. Floyd could very well be the decisive factor in this game, especially if the Jets are able to limit Rivers' options out of the pocket. Rivers will have no choice but to establish Floyd's presence as a capable receiver, one who will be able to make plays when he's called upon to do so. This will be a hard-fought game from start to finish. The Jets will bring their A-game to Qualcomm Stadium and will prove to be a thorn in the side of Norv Turner and company. With that being said, the Chargers have a lot more to play for than the Jets do right now. As Mike Francesca commented the other day, "the Jets are playing with house money right now." This means that no one expected them to get this far in the postseason. If one remembers correctly, Rex Ryan counted them out when they lost to the Falcons in Week 15 of the season. But here they stand today ready to do battle for a berth in the AFC Championship Game. It has been a very successful season for Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez. They are having fun on the field right now and it will show against the Chargers on Sunday.

With that being said, there is immense pressure on the Chargers to win now. LaDainian Tomlinson knows he is past the prime of his career, which means he wants a ring right now. Philip Rivers is emerging as one of the elite quarterbacks in this league and wants a Vince Lombardi trophy to validate his legacy. Norv Turner wants to lead his team to the promised land and certainly knows that he has the talent to do so. The Chargers finished the season riding high into the playoffs. And even though they will be facing a tough challenge from the Jets, deep down they know they have the better team and they will look to prove it on the field. Look for the Chargers to force enough turnovers from Sanchez, which will ultimately be the difference in this game. They will not fall for the trickery of Brad Smith out of the Wildcat and will not let Braylon Edwards beat them with the deep threat. They will control the pace of the game, with Rivers creating long, steady drives that will wear down the Jets defense and put more pressure on Sanchez to keep up with the Chargers on the scoreboard. When all is said and done, the Jets will put up a hell of an effort out West on Sunday. But the Chargers emerge victorious because of their unyielding desire to win and prove they are the best team in the NFL this year.

FINAL SCORE: CHARGERS 24, JETS 13

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
















This is the most intriguing of the four Divisional Round games this weekend. The Dallas Cowboys are playing the best football in the NFL right now, whereas the Minnesota Vikings have limped into the playoffs losing three of their last five games. The fact that the Vikings destroyed the Giants in the final week of the season means nothing because anyone could have beaten the Giants in the final week of the season. What is important to understand in analyzing this game is that the Vikings have a tremendous amount of pressure lingering on their shoulders. Brad Childress brought in Brett Favre this year for one reason: to carry the Vikings to a Super Bowl title. Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels were not going to be the answer in Minnesota. Childress wanted stability and experience at quarterback because he knew he had enough talent on both sides of the ball to win a championship this year. Favre has held up his end of the bargain, leading the Vikings to a division title and a first-round bye in the playoffs. But in the midst of great success, doubt has crept into the minds of the players because of the conflict between Favre and Childress late in the season. Everyone knew that Favre was a diva before he signed with the Vikings. The only person who didn't seem to know was Brad Childress. Tensions are high and will remain high until the Vikings hoist that Lombardi Trophy in Miami. This is a team that knows their window will soon close on an opportunity to win a championship. Brett Favre may be the ultimate personification of a one-hit wonder, meaning he could easily retire next season and leave the Vikings scrambling in the dust. The time is now if the Vikings are going to make a move. Unfortunately for them, America's Team is paying a visit to the Metrodome.

Ever since the Dallas Cowboys upset the New Orleans Saints, they have been playing with a passion and a fire the likes of which were unseen for such a long time. I argued that if the Cowboys were able to beat the Saints that night, then they could be a very dangerous team heading into the postseason. Lo and behold, they finished off the season with back-to-back shutouts of the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles, clinched the NFC East and followed it up with another beatdown of McNabb and company last week. To say that the Cowboys have any pressure in this game is a lie. The Cowboys have surpassed their expectations for this season and everything they accomplish now will be considered an added bonus. Granted they have an owner in Jerry Jones who would like to win a Super Bowl every year, especially with the talent he has accumulated in Big D. But considering how the Cowboys were unable to win in the month of December under Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, along with the fact that they hadn't won a playoff game in 13 years until last weekend, it is fair to say that the Cowboys have had a very successful season. But who's to say they can't go into Minnesota and upset the Vikings on Sunday? The Cowboys certainly have the talent and the personnel to match the Vikings stride for stride. They have a superstar defense that can neutralize Adrian Peterson and pressure Brett Favre in the pocket. And they have the momentum, a tidal wave of momentum that is propelling them onward in this postseason. If recent history has taught us anything, the teams with momentum heading into the postseason will find success. Just look at what the Giants and the Cardinals accomplished over the last two years. And the Cowboys are a team that has everything working in their favor right now. Tony Romo is playing the best football of his career. Felix Jones is emerging as a budding superstar in the backfield. And their defense has been prolific in getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers in key situations. The Cowboys are primed to take their show all the way to Miami. They will be ready for everything the Vikings throw at them and will not be afraid to do battle in this heavyweight contest.

The Vikings were undefeated at home this season, which makes it understandable why they are favored in this game. If the game were being played in the colossal confines of Jerry World, then I would probably give the Cowboys a slight edge. The Vikings will need their home-field advantage to kick in against the Cowboys. But even if it does, there is no doubt in my mind that the Vikings will have their hands full all day on both sides of the ball. One thing working in the Vikings' favor is the fact that their offense was seemingly unstoppable over the final six quarters of the regular season. Granted they were facing the defensive units of the Bears and the Giants who were coming off a dreadful 2009. However, for a team that was struggling to score points and were on the opposite end of lopsided defeats, such an offensive outburst may have been the confidence booster needed heading into this game. They feel like they can score on anyone right now and they will attempt to demonstrate that against the Cowboys on Sunday. Look for Brett Favre to come out with guns blazing in this game. He will fire the ball down the field early to Sidney Rice and Visante Shiancoe, hoping to get his team into a rhythm that will allow him to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson.

Now even though Peterson is coming off a season where he rushed for over 1300 yards and 18 touchdowns, he has not had a 100-yard rushing performance since Week 10 against the Lions. While Peterson is certainly capable of having a big day against the Cowboys, do not expect him to be the focal point of the Vikings offense. Favre and company will want to establish the deep threat before they can start playing smash-mouth football in between the tackles. Their offensive line has to step up in this game, which is something they have been unable to do as of late. They have lost their consistency over the last few weeks, making it very hard on Peterson and Chester Taylor to attack the line of scrimmage and establish their running lanes. The key matchup in this game will be DeMarcus Ware vs. Bryant McKinnie. Ware is the heart and soul of that Cowboys defense, putting incessant pressure on quarterbacks and throwing offenses out of rhythm. McKinnie is going to have a rough time containing Ware along the edges, which means that Favre will have to get rid of the ball quickly. This will put pressure on the Vikings receivers to immediately find holes in the coverage and break free for long strides down the field. Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins have played spectacular as of late and will be a thorn in the side of Favre all day long. If they are able to find success in neutralizing the deep threat, then Peterson and Chester Taylor will need to save Favre from making mistakes down the field. The Vikings will have to play a conservative game offensively and pound the ball into the heart of that Cowboys defense. Unfortunately for them, the Cowboys were ranked 4th in stopping the run this season. This means that Steve Hutchinson will have to take control of the offensive line, opening the gaps and ensuring that Peterson will have some cutback lanes. There will be times when drives stall for the Vikings because the Cowboys will plug up the middle and get enough pressure on Favre to disrupt his rhythm. At that point, the Vikings will hope that their defense can bail them out of unfavorable situations.

Yet this is a Cowboys team that has hit its stride offensively in the last few weeks. Tony Romo is managing the game well and making good decisions throwing the football. In his last two games against the Eagles, Romo threw for over 500 yards with four touchdowns to just one interception. He is seeing the field very well and has been able to locate his receivers all over the place. Expect more of that on Sunday as he will expose the Vikings secondary over the middle by connecting with Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton. Look for Jason Witten to move along the sidelines and become an easy target for Romo when the deep ball isn't there. But the wild card in this game will be how well the Cowboys run the football. The three-headed monster in Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice has been unstoppable as of late, with Jones emerging as the feature back so far in the postseason. Barber is questionable against the Vikings with a nagging knee injury, which means that Jones will take more baby steps in becoming the primary tool in the backfield. With all that being said, the Vikings finished 2nd in the NFL in stopping the run. This means it will be a significant challenge for the Cowboys offensive line to open up those running lanes and establish dominance on the line of scrimmage. The key to this game will be if Leonard Davis, Andre Gurode, and Kyle Kosler can manipulate the giant behemoths anchoring that Vikings defensive line. I'm talking about the Williams boys named Kevin and Pat. Both are instrumental in stuffing the line of scrimmage and closing the gaps, making it virtually impossible for teams to run on the Vikings. If the Cowboys are able to inflict their will against the Williams boys, it will make it easier for the three-headed monster to feed on the Vikings defense. But that's not all. Another key will be if Flozell Adams can contain the pass rush from Jared Allen. Flozell is the most overrated offensive tackle in football and one of the most penalized. If Allen is quicker than him off the ball, then the Cowboys are going to have trouble because he will destroy Romo's comfort in the pocket, which will lead to plenty of errant throws and possible mistakes. The Cowboys are a well-balanced machine right now and hope to use the Vikings as oil cans throughout the day. It all depends on whether or not Jared Allen and the Williams boys can contain the beastliness of the three-headed monster and force Romo to make bad decisions with the football.

There are so many factors in this game it's not even funny. But here is one more factor: Brett Favre has never beaten the Cowboys in the postseason. Will that spark his motivation on Sunday? We live in a time where momentum is everything with regard to winning in the postseason. The Cowboys are playing loose and fresh right now. They are not feeling the pressure of winning a championship because they have already surpassed expectations this season. They are having fun, which is a real commodity this time of the year. As for the Vikings, they are a very talented football team with enough tools to win the Super Bowl this year. Yet they are running into a buzz saw this week against the Cowboys. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor do not offer the same kind of threat as they would have at the beginning of the season. Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian are very talented receivers. But when it comes time to make the big plays, will they step up? Brett Favre is the ageless wonder who wants to leave this game on top of the world. He wants another ring and knows that this may be his last chance to get one. Because of that, Favre has put a tremendous amount of pressure on himself to be the one responsible for leading the Vikings to the promised land. When it comes to leaving it all out on the field, such pressure will be too much to overcome for the Purple Nation. Favre will have his opportunity to be the savior late in the game. But in the end, with so much hanging in the balance, a crucial interception reminiscent of that Giants game two years ago will kill the Vikings and catapult America's Team to this year's NFC Championship Game.

FINAL SCORE: COWBOYS 24, VIKINGS 20

Friday, January 15, 2010

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts















What is the one thing that people remember about the 2009 season for the Indianapolis Colts? It's not that the Colts won the AFC South with a league-best 14-2 record. Nor is it the fact that Peyton Manning collected his 4th MVP award in lieu of making another run at a Super Bowl title. What people remember about the Colts this season is the fact that they spit in the eye of perfection. When they pulled their starters out of their Week 16 game against the Jets, the Colts made a statement by saying that a Super Bowl title was more important than going undefeated. GM Bill Polian and Head Coach Jim Caldwell made it clear that the Colts franchise is more concerned about winning the big game as opposed to winning every game. But therein lies the paradox. In order for the Colts to win the big game, don't they have to win every game? Recent history has suggested that teams are offering justification for not giving their best effort in every game on their schedule. Once they have sewn up their division and a playoff spot, they take their foot off the gas and allow other teams to have the glory for the rest of the season. While that logic is normally acceptable when a team has 1 or 2 losses and isn't playing for a chance at history, the way the Colts have approached this newest postseason run has irked many of their fans and supporters. When the Colts pulled their starters in Week 16, their fans were not exactly thrilled to see Curtis Painter taking snaps and literally throwing away the game and a chance at perfection. This team didn't care about being the absolute best in NFL history. Yet they are going all-in with the most lucrative hand they have ever been dealt. If it doesn't result in Peyton Manning hoisting another Vince Lombardi trophy, then heads are going to roll in Indianapolis. The Colts will be scrutinized forever and placed into the realm of football oblivion. They realize the pressure they have cast upon themselves, which is perhaps greater than the pressure of going undefeated. They need to finish this season 17-2. And it all starts tonight against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an impressive victory against the New England Patriots last Sunday. They dominated Brady and company from start to finish and never let them breathe a sigh of relief. Ray Rice set the tone for the rest of the game with an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. He would finish with 22 carries for 159 yards and solidified himself as the primary offensive weapon for this Ravens squad. The Ravens defense showed up in a big way, forcing four turnovers from the Patriots offense and getting pressure on Brady all day long. The Ravens put a dagger through the heart of the Brady-Belichick dynasty last Sunday, showing everyone why they deserve to be in the playoffs this year. They now have a chance to ruin another Peyton Manning Super Bowl run and will embrace this opportunity ten-fold on Saturday night. They know they have to bring their A-game to the table because anything less will result in a tasteless defeat. The Colts cannot take the Ravens lightly in this game. While it is true that the Colts have had the Ravens' number for a very long time, the Ravens are an extremely hot team right now. They believe they can play with the very best in the game and know they have the talent and desire to make a run at the Super Bowl this year. The Colts know they will have to be more physical than the Ravens on Saturday night. They can't afford to come out rusty because they know the Ravens love the art of smash-mouth football. They will punch people in the mouth rather than juggle them at the line of scrimmage. The Colts understand that they have to develop a rhythm early in this game if they are going to catch the Ravens off guard. Lucky for them, they have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback who will make sure that happens.

The Colts have assured everyone that they are crisp and ready for a deep run in the playoffs. Jim Caldwell and Peyton Manning have told the media how the offense and defense scrimmaged each other for three days straight and how these last two weeks have featured some of their best practices ever. That's all well and good. But practice sessions are not real game-time situations. Practicing against the Colts' scrubs is not the same as practicing against the Ravens 1st team. We shall see on Saturday night if those excellent practices result in a victory. With all that being said, everyone knows the game rests in the hands of Peyton Manning. Every aspect of the Ravens defensive game plan will be built around #18 and what he does with the football. To say that they have to generate a pass rush and disrupt Manning's rhythm would be an understatement of what they have to accomplish in this game. While it is true that they need to get a pass rush, they also have to drag Manning to the ground and force sacks. Everyone knows that whenever Manning has the football and is scampering around in the pocket, he is a dangerous threat. There is perhaps no defensive scheme you can muster that will stop Manning from delivering the football accurately and in plenty of time. So how will the Ravens try to stop him? By not letting him have the football.

The Ravens will want to keep Manning off the field as much as possible in this game. Their defensive backs need to get pressure on the Colts' receivers at the line of scrimmage, establishing their aggressiveness and throwing them off their routes as much as possible. This will force Manning to sit in that pocket and look around for longer periods of time. If he can't find anyone, he will most likely throw the ball away, which will lead to stalled drives and a change in momentum. But if Haloi Ngata and Trevor Pryce can manipulate the line of scrimmage and shed the blocks of Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem, it will force Manning out of the pocket and make him throw the ball on the run. Last time I checked, Manning is not a well-balanced quarterback. His strengths emerge when he has enough time in the pocket to locate his receivers and throw the ball with precision. If the Ravens can take Manning out of his comfort zone, then they will control the pace of the game by generating errant throws and possible turnover scenarios. The most important aspect of this game will be how long Peyton Manning has the football. If the Colts are able to dominate the time of possession, then the Ravens will be hamstrung into scoring every time they have the football. Everyone knows that Manning will make sure the Colts get on the scoreboard. But the Ravens would love nothing more than to limit his production by keeping him off the field.

And what will the Ravens do when Manning is off the field? They will pound the ball with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Both running backs are the source of the Ravens' offensive power, absolutely shredding the Patriots last Sunday and illustrating why they are a one-two combo that can give the Colts fits all night long. The strength of the Colts defense is their ability to rush the quarterback. They have two of the league's best pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who can shed their blocks better than anyone and can generate havoc in the backfield. Yet both will be put to the test on Saturday night because the Ravens will not be looking to throw the ball in this game. Joe Flacco only passed the ball ten times last weekend, completing four passes for 34 yards and throwing an interception. Four completions for 34 yards. Isn't the NFL supposed to be a passing league now? There is no evidence to the contrary in Baltimore as the Ravens wear down opposing defenses with Rice and McGahee. They didn't need to pass the ball last week because they knocked the Patriots out in the opening minutes of their epic boxing match. With Flacco's lingering hip injury, which caused him to stand on the entire plane ride to Indianapolis, look for the Ravens to establish the run very early in this game. The Colts defense was ranked 24th in stopping the run this year, which means that the Ravens should have an easy time pounding it up the middle with Rice and attacking the outside with McGahee. In order for the Colts to neutralize both backs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson have to stuff the middle and force some cutbacks along the edges. Gary Brackett has to attack the line of scrimmage with force, harnessing his aggression towards chasing down Rice and McGahee. The Colts know the Ravens will limit Flacco in this game, which means that receivers like Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason will be insignificant factors in terms of offensive production. But even though the Ravens will establish the run early, that doesn't mean Flacco won't throw the ball at all. The Colts have to watch the middle of the field as Flacco will look to find Todd Heap running over the middle or Demetrius Williams anchoring the slot. But if the Colts are able to stop Rice and McGahee in this game, then the Ravens don't stand a chance of moving on to the AFC Championship.

This is going to be a very competitive game from start to finish. Even though the Ravens never actually beat the Colts, they always play them close to the chest. And guess what, the Ravens have very little pressure to deal with because there aren't a lot of people who expect them to win this game. Every ounce of pressure, every seed of trepidation, rests in the hands of the Colts. As a result, the Ravens will come out playing loose and having fun. Can we say the same about the Colts? History has told us that whenever the Colts come off a bye week, they start out flat and often have to play from behind. Will tonight's game be any different? I think it will. The Colts have a lot to prove this postseason. They want to illustrate to their fans how they made the right choice in resting their starters. They are facing a Ravens team that is playing their best right now, running the football hard and playing excellent defense. This will not be an easy one for the Colts. They will be hard-pressed to shut down Rice and McGahee, both of whom will keep the Ravens alive for the better half of this game. But the Colts should have no problem stopping Flacco, who is battling an injury and doesn't have the receivers necessary to create a proper balance between run and pass. And even though the Ravens have been playing well defensively, they are still very suspect in big-time situations. The Ravens defense might be able to contain Manning for the first half of the game. But when it comes to do-or-die time in the second half, look for Manning to read the blitz comfortably and to dump the ball off to either Pierre Garcon in the screen or Dallas Clark over the slot. The wild card in this game will be whether or not Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can get yards after contact. They will take a pounding from Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs in between the tackles. But if they can break free for some extra yards, then that will take pressure off Manning and allow for the Colts to open up the playbook. The Ravens will come out with a superior effort on Saturday night. But the Colts are the more talented team and in the end, Peyton Manning will prevail for at least one more week.

FINAL SCORE: COLTS 24, RAVENS 19

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
















The Cardinals survived the ultimate game of Madden last weekend against the Packers. Their offense was unstoppable as Kurt Warner completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns. And all of their offensive production was without All-Pro receiver Anquan Boldin. So when one analyzes the Cardinals' showdown with the New Orleans Saints on Saturday night, one cannot ignore the virtuosity and dynamic explosiveness that they will bring to the Superdome. Here's the problem: THEY CAN'T PLAY DEFENSE!!!!!!! The final score of that game last weekend was 51-45. For the entire second half, the Packers were trading touchdowns with the Cardinals on the scoreboard. Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner were on fire, marching their teams down the field in big ways and making their Wild Card shootout an instant classic. Ironically, it was the Cardinals defense that came up big in the overtime period with Michael Adams sacking Rodgers in the backfield and causing a fumble. Karlos Dansby would then pick up the ball and return it to the house, sending the Cardinals on their way to the Big Easy. Yet Rodgers would finish with 422 yards and 4 touchdowns as he absolutely ripped apart the Cardinals secondary for big play after big play after big play. The Packers had a prime opportunity to win the game on the first play in overtime. But Aaron Rodgers ended up overthrowing James Jones by a few yards deep over the middle of the field. Little did Rodgers know that such an incompletion would lead to a terrible missed opportunity, especially when Cardinals kicker Neil Rackers almost choked himself to death after missing a chip-shot field goal at the end of regulation. It was a game that belonged to the Packers and one that the Cardinals certainly deserved to lose. Yet here the Cardinals stand on the eve of the Divisional Playoffs, ready to do battle with the most prolific offense in the entire NFL.

The Saints' offense has to feel extremely confident going into this football game. They saw what Rodgers did to that Cardinals secondary and they know Drew Brees can put up the same kind of statistics. Their receiving core features some of the best playmakers in the NFL. Marques Colston has emerged as a burdening sensation and will have a distinct height advantage going up against that Cardinals secondary. He will be able to snatch balls out of the air and away from the grasp of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, ultimately playing an instrumental part in moving his offense down the field. But also look for Brees to spread the ball around in this game, connecting with Lance Moore and Devery Henderson in the slot and along the sidelines. They know that the Cardinals secondary was exposed last week. And lord knows that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael Jr. have been showing film all week about how relentless the Packers were in throwing the ball and how they constantly attacked the heart of that Cardinals secondary. It's very simple: if Drew Brees is able to establish his rhythm in the pocket, then we are most likely going to see another Madden-esque shootout. Brees is a much better quarterback than Aaron Rodgers and is surrounded by a better core of players. If he is able to stand around in the pocket all day long, then the Cardinals will be suffering from deja vu and will be forced to fight an uphill battle in a very hostile environment.

There are many experts out there who don't believe in the concept of home-field advantage. But don't tell me that those passionate Saints fans won't play an integral part in the outcome of this game. It will be deafening in the Superdome on Saturday night, which will force the Cardinals to operate on silent counts. It has been said that the hardest place to win in the NFL is the Superdome. Granted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to go in and steal one from the Saints in the final weeks of the season. But these are the playoffs. So much is on the line for a Saints team that has come very far this season and were three games away from going undefeated. Here's what will be very interesting for Brees and company. The Cardinals play a 3-4 defense and are certainly capable of generating a pass rush against Brees. The last time the Saints took on a 3-4 defense, it was against the Dallas Cowboys and they ended up losing that game 24-17. Their offensive line broke down against the pass rush of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer, which resulted in the disruption of Brees' rhythm and led to an uncharacteristically inept performance from the Saints. The Saints have had to hear for over a month about how they are extremely vulnerable and susceptible to an upset at home. As an NFL fan who watched their progressive downfall towards the end of the season, I am also apt to feeling skeptical about how the Saints will respond in the playoffs. But I expect their offensive line to solve their protection woes against the Cardinals on Saturday. I expect Brees to have enough time in the pocket to matriculate the ball down the field in a big way. But if the Cardinals are able to get to Brees, then the pressure will be on Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush to find enough seams in the running game to sustain a heavy drive. And if it comes down to that, then there could be an upset brewing down in the Deep South.

How will the Saints defense attempt to neutralize Kurt Warner and that powerful Cardinals passing attack? Praying for a miracle may be the only answer. The Cardinals have an extraordinary depth to their receiving core, which worked wonders last week without Anquan Boldin. There is no reason to think why it won't show up again this week against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints finished the season ranked 26th in the NFL in pass defense, which means they will certainly have their hands full containing Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston. The matchup of the night may involve Breaston and Tracy Porter. Porter will need to be very aggressive with Breaston at the line of scrimmage because everyone knows the Saints will commit an extra safety to stopping Fitzgerald. Warner was very successful last week in rotating the ball to Breaston, Early Doucet, and Ben Patrick. Expect to see more of that this week to compensate for the loss of Boldin. But the Cardinals will not just be aiming to pass the ball this week against the Saints. They will want to establish the run with Beanie Wells so as to curtail the focus away from Warner and give themselves enough balance offensively to put the ball in the end zone. Since the Saints were ranked 21st in stopping the run, I'd say the Cardinals have a decent opportunity to make some noise early in this football game. If the rumors are true, then Kurt Warner is treating every single postseason game as if it were his swan song. Another Super Bowl title will not only assure him of a spot in the Hall of Fame, but will also elevate his legacy to one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game. Expect another tremendous performance from Warner against an inconsistent Saints secondary. But the heavy burden will be on the Cardinals defense to take Brees out of the game and keep the Saints out of the end zone.

The Cardinals have enough offensive talent to keep up with the Saints in this game. And their defense certainly has the capability of breaking down the offensive line and getting to Brees very often. But after giving up 493 total yards to the Packers last weekend, how confident can the Cardinals honestly be on the defensive side of the ball? They must have watched the film disgusted at themselves for how pitiful they played. Even though they forced the game-winning turnover from Rodgers, they know how lucky they were last weekend. And in order to make a statement in this game, they will need to make plays from the very beginning. Darnell Dockett, Bryan Robinson, and Calais Campbell will need to dominate the line of scrimmage, using the 3-4 to their advantage to get enough pressure on Brees. They know that is the key to winning the game because they know Brees can hurt them with the deep ball. Brees will make his share of plays, but can the Cardinals ruin his composure and force enough errant throws to halt drives and create turnovers? I'm not sure that they can. The Cardinals will most likely be missing Gerald Hayes at linebacker for this game, which is a vital ingredient to the success of their run defense. Pierre Thomas will have a terrific game running between the tackles and the Cardinals will have contain problems all day long. Brees will have enough time to make plays down the field and put the Saints on the board early. And even though Warner and the Cardinals will hang tough until the very end, the Saints defense will come up big in the final moments and catapult their team to an appearance in the NFC Championship Game.

FINAL SCORE: SAINTS 35, CARDINALS 30

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals









For those who appreciate defensive prowess or old-fashioned viciousness on the football field, don't expect any of that with this game. The Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals are all about the flashiness and the offensive bravura. Their desire, first and foremost, is to outscore their opponent because they are seemingly incapable of stopping their opponent from scoring as well. This is a game that could easily turn into a offensive shootout very early. Both teams are dynamic enough on the offensive side of the ball to cause havoc through the air and on the ground. And even though the Packers ripped apart the Cardinals last week, one must take that victory with a grain of salt. If you thought the Bengals weren't trying last week against the Jets, then just look to the Cardinals and you'll see a team that said "Hey Packers, take your victory, we'll see you next week." The Cardinals wanted no part of the Packers last week because they knew they would be facing them in this week's Wild Card round. The Packers know this and understand how they cannot read into anything they did last week. Their second season begins now. Everything is on the line. Will they step up and bring their A-game?

Let's think about the intangible for a moment. This is Aaron Rodgers's first playoff game as an NFL quarterback. And even though Mark Sanchez buffed the trend yesterday by having a good game in Cincinnati, one still has to respect history and understand that quarterbacks making their first playoff start tend to struggle. Now, Rodgers certainly has enough weapons around him to ensure that he survives Arizona in one piece. And I think Mike McCarthy and the rest of the Green Bay coaching staff have enough confidence in Rodgers to know that he will be able to get the job done. Still, nervousness is an underrated factor when analyzing players with playoff inexperience. But then again, Rodgers has been operating under the radar ever since #4 left Cheesehead Nation. He is certainly the most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now and quietly put together an MVP season for the Packers with 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He has not turned the football over in the last four games and is one of the more precise quarterbacks playing in the NFL today. These are two important factors that cannot be ignored, especially when it comes to winning in the playoffs. If Rodgers can manage the game well and avoid turnovers, then he will absolutely destroy a Cardinals secondary that is depleted by injury. The Cardinals may not have their best cover corner in this game in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, which means the Packers will have a tremendous advantage along the edge. Look for Rodgers to expose the Cardinals over the middle for big plays as their secondary will look to double cover either Greg Jennings or Donald Driver. Rodgers may be making his first playoff start, but he will look like a seasoned veteran on Sunday as he will make good decisions with the football and power the Packers up and down the field against the Cardinals.

In order for the Cardinals to sustain any kind of Packers drive on Sunday, they will need to get a heavy pass rush on Rodgers consistently. They will need to disrupt his fixture inside the pocket and they will need to get him scrambling for his life. They will need to throw him off his rhythm, which will lead to plenty of incompletions and put a stop to many drives. The Cardinals boast one of the tougher run defenses in the entire league. They are quick to their gaps and have the ability to shore up the middle of the field. Ryan Grant will have a rough day running between the tackles. But since the Packers are not a run-oriented team, then it shouldn't be much of a problem. The Cardinals have a ton of issues in their secondary right now and the Packers will look to take advantage of that. The Packers offensive line needs to protect Rodgers as much as possible. They need to get him comfortable in the pocket so he can connect with his receivers and rip apart the Cardinals secondary. But if the Cardinals are able to disrupt his rhythm in the pocket, then the Packers will have a hard time generating any kind of production. I don't expect the Cardinals to be very successful getting to Rodgers. I think Rodgers will have plenty of time in the pocket to make things happen. He will find Jennings, Driver, and Jermichael Finley for some big plays over the middle as the Cardinals will be unable to stop the Packers all day long.

But if the Packers are going to win this game on Sunday, then their defense has to step up and make some key stops against that Cardinals offense. Sources are reporting that this could be the last hurrah for Kurt Warner, which means that he will treat this second season as the final note on his NFL legacy. He will be pumped up and ready to win this game, which could spell doom for the Packers. In order for the Packers to be successful defensively, they will need to blitz Warner all day long and make him react quickly in the pocket. Clay Matthews has had a stellar rookie season at linebacker for the Packers. He has to be a beast in the middle of the field in this game, using his quickness and agility to brush past the Cardinals offensive line and collapse Warner in the pocket. The Packers may have a distinct advantage in their secondary if Anquan Boldin doesn't play for the Cardinals. Boldin is a vital part to the Cardinals' offensive success. He had over 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season to go with 4 touchdowns. But the reason he is so important to the Cardinals is because it takes pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald. Secondaries have to adjust to both receivers because they are both capable of causing havoc over the middle and along the sidelines. Without Boldin, the Cardinals will be limited in their offensive production. Charles Woodson and Atari Bigby will seek to double cover Fitzgerald all day long, which means that Warner will seek other alternatives through the air. Look for Warner to spread the ball out to receivers like Steve Breaston and Jerheme Urban if Boldin doesn't play. The Cardinals will also try to establish the run with Beanie Wells, which means that their offensive line must open up the running lanes to allow for Wells to gain some momentum when he touches the ball. The Cardinals need to protect Warner in the pocket. If the Packers get a hefty pass rush and disrupt Warner's comfort zone, then they will be able to control the tempo of this game and be able to dictate how they want it to go. The Cardinals are the more experienced team on the field. Will that make a difference against a Packers team yearning to make a statement against the defending NFC Champions?

This game will be extremely competitive all day long. It is really hard for me to envision anything other than an offensive shootout between these two teams. This is not a game that will glorify the defensive side of the ball. However, I'm a firm believer in the old adage that defense wins championships. Whichever defense is able to stop the opposing offense at the end of the game will win. The Cardinals have home-field advantage in this game and certainly bare the wealth of experience. It will show very early when Warner leads them down the field to score the first points of the game. The key will be how well Rodgers responds to Warner's production and in the end, I think we could be seeing a terrific quarterback duel that will result in a lot of points being scored. The loss of Boldin will make it very tough on the Cardinals to establish consistent momentum in this game. All signs are pointing to him not playing on Sunday, which will certainly help the Packers defensively. The Packers are riding high into this showdown with Arizona. They are an unstoppable force on the offensive side of the ball and are certainly capable of distancing themselves from the Cardinals in this game. However, I think their defense is very susceptible in this game with or without Boldin, especially if they're unable to generate a pass rush. I think the benefit of playoff experience will show in this game. And I think a late turnover costs the Packers a victory in this game, which is a shame because they may very well be better than the Cardinals this year. The Cardinals survive another week as the defending NFC Champions on the wings of Kurt Warner and, what will ultimately be the difference in this game, the legs of Beanie Wells.

FINAL SCORE: CARDINALS 27, PACKERS 24

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots













This is the only Wild Card game not to be a rematch from Week 17. But that doesn't mean it's devoid of any suspense. There are many people out there who believe that this is an easy win for the Patriots. They are film believers in the art of Tom Brady and the wisdom of Bill Belichick. And why shouldn't they be? The New England Patriots were the team of the decade, winning 3 Super Bowls and very nearly obtaining perfection in 2007. And as long as Brady and Belichick are running things up in Foxboro, the Patriots will always stand a chance of winning a Super Bowl. But this is a new decade, which means that anything can happen on any given Sunday. The Patriots are no longer the team to beat in the AFC. They are vulnerable on both sides of the ball even with Brady as their quarterback. They have glaring weaknesses in the linebacking core and maintain a very inexperienced secondary. The Patriots are not the invincible warriors of 2007. And on Sunday, they will be facing a Ravens team that is slowly developing into an offensive juggernaut with Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Willis McGahee.

The Ravens defense may not be as powerful or intimidating as it once was. But they are still a force to be reckoned with on a weekly basis. Ray Lewis is the unquestioned leader of this football team and seeks to play the game of his life every week. He is arguably the most passionate and intense football player in the NFL and is certainly capable of motivating his team to be the best that they can be. And even though time and aging have slowed Lewis down over the years, he is still a menace on the football field and remains the heart and soul of that Baltimore Ravens defense. He will have his defensive unit ready to play on Sunday against a Patriots offense reeling from the loss of Wes Welker. Welker's season-ending ACL injury against the Texans may have cost the Patriots a chance at a Super Bowl. Welker was an instrumental part of the Patriots' offensive game plan and it will be very hard to replace him over the course of the playoffs. There are some who believe that Julian Edelman will be as productive as Welker was in the slot position for the Patriots. But I beg to differ. Edelman does not have any playoff experience and it will show on Sunday against the Ravens. I'm sure that Brady will target him several times simply because throwing to the slot receiver is the key to their offensive success. But I think Edelman drops way too many balls over the course of the game, which will force Brady to spread the ball around to Randy Moss or Ben Watson. They might even have to put Moss in the slot, which will eliminate the deep threat and force the Ravens to play inside a lot more. It all depends on what kind of effort Edelman gives on Sunday and if he truly is the Wes Welker clone some are predicting him to be.

If it turns out that Edelman is not the second coming of Wes Welker, then Brady will have to look for other options along the sideline and over the middle. The Patriots had reasonable success when they moved Moss into the slot position when Welker was hurt at the beginning of the season. They may turn to that again on Sunday as they look to replace Welker's production in whatever way possible. Look for the Patriots to run the ball a little more, pounding it up the middle with Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. Also look for Brady to dish out some screen passes to Maroney and Faulk as the Patriots will try to grind it out against that Ravens defense. The key to the game will be if the offensive line can shield Brady from the Ravens pass rush. If it is true that Brady has 3 broken ribs and one broken finger, then he is going to be as fragile as an expensive piece of glass on Sunday. The Patriots cannot afford to have the pocket collapse on Brady. They will need to protect him as much as possible and ensure that he leaves Foxboro unscathed. The Patriots know that they will travel nowhere fast without Tom Brady, and the Ravens know this as well. Look for the Ravens to blitz heavily throughout the course of the game so as to constantly pursue an active pass rush on Brady. Look for them to stuff the middle and shut down the running game, which will limit the offensive balance of the Patriots and force them to throw the ball more. The Patriots are going to live and die on the arm of Brady during the 2010 playoffs. If the Ravens are effective in shutting down Randy Moss, then that will put the onus on other receivers to make big plays. I'm not sure the Patriots can compensate for both the loss of Welker and an ineffective Randy Moss. But if push comes to shove, who's going to bet against Tom Brady?

If we assume that Brady is going to have a terrific game throwing the football, then how will the Ravens respond offensively to match his output? The Patriots are returning Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren to anchor the middle of the defensive front. This means that the Ravens offensive line has to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, creating enough running lanes for Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. But that may not be enough to overmatch the strength and agility of Wilfork and Warren. In order for Rice and McGahee to be productive, they will need to be aggressive at the point of attack and shed tackles to generate yards after contact. They will need to cut through their running lanes and outhustle the Patriots at the line of scrimmage. And they will need to bounce off their linemen, using their speed and quickness to overmatch the Patriots linebacking core. If Wilfork and Warren are healthy, then they are going to be a dangerous force all day long for the Ravens offensive line. The key for the Ravens will be if their offensive line can contain their blocks away from the middle to generate production along the sidelines. If Rice and McGahee aren't able to create enough momentum outside the tackles, then the Ravens will have a tough day running the ball. It will force Joe Flacco to make some plays with his arm. And with all due respect to Flacco, he is not Tom Brady. Nor does he have an elite receiver who can open up the passing game when the running game is stifled. The Ravens will be starting Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason on Sunday. Mark Clayton is not Randy Moss and Derrick Mason is way past his prime. This is a Ravens team that is not pass-oriented simply because they have never been pass-oriented. The philosophy behind their success has always been running the football and playing good defense. They have a terrific running game with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. And their defense is still a very solid unit. But what happens if the Patriots break down that running game? What happens if Brady gets hot and the pace of the game starts to get out-of-control? These are questions the Ravens cannot answer because they are not a pass-oriented football team. And if Rice and McGahee aren't getting the tough yards and/or matriculating the ball down the field, then the Ravens will be hard-pressed to win the game through the air. Joe Flacco has not yet proven he can win a game through the air. If the game is thrust into his hands on Sunday, odds are the Patriots will get an easy win at home.

How will this game unfold? The Ravens shocked a lot of people last season when they advanced to the AFC Championship Game with victories over the Dolphins and Titans. In order to pull the same kind of magic this season, Joe Flacco has to be an efficient manager of the football game. He cannot make mistakes throwing the football and must allow for the Ravens to do what they do best. He is not supposed to be the hero of this football team and must leave it in the hands of Rice and McGahee to make it happen. With Wilfork and Warren returning to the defensive line, it's going to be very challenging for the Ravens to generate enough force at the line of scrimmage to overpower those two behemoths. I think the Patriots will be moderately successful in containing the Ravens' running attack. But I think Ray Rice will break free a few times, proving to be a thorn on the side of Bill Belichick and company. In the end, I think the Patriots get enough of a pass rush from Jerod Mayo and Jarvis Green to trap Flacco in the pocket and cause all kinds of havoc for the Ravens offensive line. I think the Patriots will do a great job at protecting Brady, allowing him to see the field and find Moss with ease throughout the course of the game. And I think Edelman settles down in the second half, catching enough balls to make the home crowd forget about Wes Welker. The Patriots will survive a tough battle with the Ravens. The question will be if they can survive the next rounds.

FINAL SCORE: PATRIOTS 24, RAVENS 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys















This is probably the most intriguing of this week's Wild Card games simply because the Cowboys have beaten the Eagles twice this season. The most notable of those victories came last weekend when the Cowboys romped the Eagles 24-0 to clinch the NFC East division. One can understand why the Eagles aren't favored in this game. They supposedly gave their best effort last week in an effort to clinch the NFC East and a first-round bye in the playoffs. What did they produce? Absolutely nothing. Instead, it was the Cowboys who came up big thanks in large part to another stellar defensive performance. Ever since their upset victory over the Saints, the Cowboys have been playing with passion and intensity the likes of which we have never seen from them in the month of December. They closed out their season with three convincing wins over two playoff teams and the lackluster Washington Redskins. The defense has produced back-to-back shutouts for the first time in team history, which is an excellent sign heading into the postseason. Tony Romo is playing the best football of his career, emerging as the perennial leader of America's Team during the month of December. Romo is making good decisions with the football and has established a consistency with his receivers that allows Dallas to open the running game whenever it wants to. The Cowboys are a team with an unlimited amount of talent and depth, which also means they are a team with a significant amount of potential.

What makes this game really interesting though is that the Cowboys haven't lived up to the billing of America's Team for the last 13 years. Translation: they haven't won a playoff game since 1996. That is a gorilla twice the size of King Kong and nearly equal to the pressure of winning a Super Bowl in Big D. And it is a factor that must be taken into consideration when evaluating this game. There is no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys are playing the best football in the NFC right now. They finished the regular season riding a boatload of momentum and are in prime position to make a statement this weekend and well into February. But all that momentum means nothing if they don't win Saturday night. The facts are still the facts. Wade Phillips is 0-4 as a head coach in the playoffs. Tony Romo has never won a playoff game. None of the players on the Cowboys roster have tasted the glory of playoff victory. And...they are playing the Philadelphia Eagles, a division rival that is stark raving mad over how they played last weekend. The Eagles are a team that can easily bounce back from a loss, especially the kind they suffered last weekend. They have just as much talent as the Cowboys and have won 6 of the last 7 games. So the Cowboys cannot take this Eagle team for granted. If they do, then they will be in big trouble all night long.

The Cowboys will be on pins and needles, feeling the pressure and desperately craving a victory so they can let loose. How will they go about accomplishing this? By sticking to the game plan that worked so well last weekend. They will feed the ball to Marion Barber and hope to get the same level of production they got from him last week. They will expect Felix Jones to break free for long runs, which will allow for the Cowboys to win the battle of field position. And they will look to give a few carries to Tashard Choice so as to make the Eagles prepare for all their weapons in the backfield. The three-headed monster will come out roaring tonight. We shall see if the Eagles can claw their way to success. The Eagles defense was very lackluster last weekend simply because they abandoned their defensive philosophy. The Eagles are all about blitzing the quarterback, hoping that they get enough pressure to throw off his rhythm. If they don't blitz the quarterback, then they leave their secondary exposed over the middle, which often leads to big plays and scoring drives. The Eagles did not blitz Tony Romo at all last week, which resulted in big games from Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten. They cannot allow Romo to develop a rhythm this week because he will kill them every time. Romo is playing too well right now to let the game slip away. He will not make mistakes if there is no pressure on him in the pocket because the Cowboys have enough talent to butcher the Eagles' secondary. Expect the Eagles to throw everything at Romo this week, forcing him to be quicker than usual in an effort to get him confused and irritated in the pocket. The key will be if the Eagles can get there in time to force enough sacks and errant throws from Romo. If they do, then expect a lot of turnovers from Big D's star quarterback. If not, expect a heavy dose of what we saw last week.

And what do the Eagles have to do offensively against this vaunting Cowboys defense? For one thing, they need to put points on the scoreboard. How do they go about doing that? Donovan McNabb needs to find his receivers down the field early and often. The Cowboys have done a spectacular job of neutralizing DeSean Jackson in their two games with Philadelphia this season. In last week's game, Jackson caught 3 balls for 47 yards. In the first game against Dallas, he was held to 2 catches for 29 yards. Prognosis: not so good the third time around. McNabb has tried to establish the deep threat with Jackson numerous times against the Cowboys with very little success. In fact, the only Philly receiver to have success against the Cowboys this season was TE Brent Celek, who had 7 receptions for 96 yards last weekend. Expect McNabb to find Celek over the middle consistently in this football game. However, they will need star efforts from Jackson and Jeremy Maclin if they are going to win this game. The Eagles also have to develop their running game as much as possible. I know that Andy Reid has always been a pass-happy coach and that Brian Westbrook is still coming back from his concussion. But the Eagles need to establish an offensive balance that will throw the Cowboys off in this game and leave them all kinds of confused. How do they go about doing this? By mixing and matching with Westbrook and LeSean McCoy. McCoy had a terrific season filling in for Westbrook and has established himself as a potent weapon on this Eagles offense. He can be very effective at the line of scrimmage and can hammer the ball up the middle to gain the tough yards after contact. Westbrook is dangerous running sweeps to the outside, which leaves the Eagles with many different offensive choices. But the Eagles cannot rely solely on McNabb and their passing attack to win this game. There needs to be balance in order to produce results. Last week, the running game was held to just 37 yards on the ground. This forced McNabb to throw the ball significantly to receivers who couldn't break off their defenders in time. The Cowboys got enough pressure on McNabb to make him scramble out of the pocket many times. They also took advantage of the loss of C Jamaal Jackson, which left the Eagles confused and disgruntled at the line of scrimmage throughout the course of the game. What do I expect from the Eagles in this game? I expect them to obviously make adjustments to their game plan. They will try their best to accommodate the loss of Jackson on the offensive line, which means they will establish their passing game early and incorporate the run late. They will need to control the tempo at the line of scrimmage by limiting the Cowboys' pursuit of the ball and the pressure they can get on McNabb. McNabb will need time to manage the game and to throw accurately to his receivers. And his receivers need to get open, making plays down the field and getting the Eagles in prime position to make something happen. It will be a very tough task against a Cowboys defense that is playing lights out right now. But the Eagles have enough talent to make it happen, especially with all the pressure riding on this game for the Cowboys.

As to how this game will unfold...I think it's going to be very challenging for the Eagles to win this game. Unlike the Bengals, the Eagles tried very hard to win last week in Dallas because they had the NFC East and a first-round bye at stake in the game. The Cowboys know they can beat the Eagles because they have already done so twice this year. And it is very hard to fathom how the Eagles are going to replace Jamaal Jackson at the center position. Still, the Eagles have enough fire power to match the Cowboys offensively. And lord knows the Cowboys will not shut out the Eagles again. Back-to-back shutouts are rare. Back-to-back-to-back shutouts are unheard of. This is going to be a very competitive game, one that may go down to the very end. Who wants it more? I think the Cowboys want it more. The Cowboys are looking into the magic mirror. They know how well they've played over the last three weeks. And they know that this may be their best opportunity to make a run at the Vince Lombardi trophy. I know that it is very hard to beat a division rival three times in a row over the course of a season. But I think the Cowboys have a mental edge over the Eagles right now. They are playing well-balanced football and believe that the only thing that can stop them is themselves. If they don't turn the football over or shoot themselves in the foot with penalties, then they will win this game and cruise into Minnesota next weekend. I think Romo has a great game. I think the defense plays inspired football once again. And I think Jerry Jones will sleep well tonight.

FINAL SCORE: COWBOYS 27, EAGLES 17