New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Wyoming
This appears to be a mismatch if ever I saw one. Fresno State is obviously a much better team than Wyoming. Not to mention Wyoming had to win their final game just to qualify for bowl-eligibility and they barely did so with a 17-16 victory over Colorado State. However, what is interesting about the bowl season is that teams you don't expect to win can sometimes offer us a big surprise. Fresno State certainly has enough weapons offensively to put this game away early. If Wyoming is going to win this game, they have to shut down Fresno's high-speed RB Ryan Mathews. And that is a very tall order to ask from an undersized and overmatched Wyoming defense. Mathews accumulated over 1600 yards rushing during the regular season and ran for over 100 yards in all but one game this season. He is a vicious runner who can deceive you with his speed and his agility. The Wyoming defense will definitely have their hands full at stopping Fresno State on the ground. However, if they are able to limit Mathews' productivity, then I could see Wyoming pulling off a stunner in this game. One of the advantages that Wyoming has over Fresno State is that they competed against four ranked teams this season. So they should understand the significance of a big-game atmosphere. But if Wyoming is going to win this game, they will need to find a way to put their share of points on the scoreboard. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels and RB Alvester Alexander must make big plays in important situations and must not let Fresno State control the pace of the game. Both athletes have not been very productive throughout the regular season. But this is the New Mexico Bowl. And when trophies on the line, all athletes bring their A-game. Look for Samuels and Alexander to play hard throughout the game. But in the end, Fresno State is just too strong offensively with Mathews and company for Wyoming to steal this one. Fresno State wins 45-13.
St. Petersburg Bowl: UCF vs. Rutgers
These are two teams with similar philosophies on how to win football games. Ironically enough, one of them has inadvertently won this year while using a different approach. The Rutgers football program under Greg Schiano has been known for their smash mouth techniques on the offensive side of the ball. RB Ray Rice was the heart and soul of that football team when Schiano brought them back to national prominence. This year, Rutgers has been more open to throwing the football with QB Tom Savage, which resulted in an 8-win season for the Scarlet Knights. Such a devotion to the passing game has allowed for Rutgers to become a more dangerous team and a legitimate threat in the Big East Conference for years to come. However, Rutgers has not totally abandoned the running game. RB Joe Martinek gave the Knights a perfect balance offensively with over 900 yards rushing this season. As a result, Rutgers has the ability to be very creative with their play calling and can mix-and-match in terms of matriculating the ball down the field. They can pound the ball at the line of scrimmage with Martinek and then go cross-country to find Tim Brown along the sidelines. Brown was very productive for Rutgers this season as he amassed over 1,000 receiving yards. Look for Rutgers to try and control the tempo early against UCF. Look for their defense to neutralize their running game and focus most of their attention on RB Brynn Harvey. UCF must be patient in terms of utilizing their game plan. They are obviously going to run the ball with Harvey and look for seams at the line of scrimmage. The key will be if senior QB Brett Hodges can be accurate in the pocket and gradually move the ball down the field with 6 or 7 yard dump-offs to his receivers. UCF must grind it out against Rutgers; they must exhibit dominance with their offensive line and be more physical when it comes to execution. With that being said, there is no doubt that Rutgers is a more physical football team than UCF. They will do an excellent job at gradually wearing down the UCF defense while also containing Harvey in the backfield. In the end, Savage will make some key plays in the 4th quarter that will allow for Rutgers to pull away easily. Rutgers wins 34-21.
New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee
This is a more fascinating game than it appears to be. Southern Miss is 7-5 and has just come off a tough loss to East Carolina in the Conference-USA championship game. What is intriguing to notice is that they played a much tougher schedule than Middle Tennessee this season. In their two games against ranked opponents, Southern Miss only lost by an average of 7 points. How many ranked opponents did Middle Tennessee play this season? ZERO!!!!! Clemson was the hardest team that Middle Tennessee faced this season and they got trounced 37-14. So whose to say that Southern Miss can't pull off the upset against a 9-3 Middle Tennessee team coming off an impressive victory over UL-Monroe? The focal point of Middle Tennessee's offense is QB Dwight Dasher. Dasher put together an unbelievable season for the Blue Raiders as he was responsible for 3500 yards of total offense and 32 total touchdowns. It doesn't take a genius to realize that Middle Tennessee's offense lives and dies on the arms and legs of Dasher. And their defense isn't half-bad either. Middle Tennessee's defense may have allowed 21.2 points per game during the regular season. Yet over the course of their 6-game winning streak, their defense has been tenacious at getting to the quarterback and outstanding at forcing turnovers to seal victories for their team. It is going to be very tough for Southern Miss to compete with Middle Tennessee if they cannot contain Dasher and shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers. However, I have a funny feeling that Southern Miss sneaks out of New Orleans with a miracle win over Middle Tennessee. QB Martevious Young will step up in big-pressure situations against that Middle Tennessee defense. WR's DeAndre Brown and Gerald Baptiste will make some incredible catches along the sidelines and over the middle in this game, allowing Southern Miss to march the ball down the field with ease. And Young will do a great job at handling ball security as he limits his mistakes against the Middle Tennessee defense. Dasher will be a one-man wrecking crew for the Blue Raiders in this New Orleans Bowl. Yet his herculean efforts will not be enough to shoot down the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss. Southern Miss wins 37-34.
Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon State vs. BYU
This is certainly one of the more intriguing games of the 2009 Bowl Season. The last time we saw Oregon State, they were playing in the Civil War against Oregon for a right to appear in the Rose Bowl. The Beavers certainly left everything on the football field that night but in the end fell short of that trip to Pasadena. Their consolation prize was a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl against BYU. And it is not going to be an easy task for this talented Beavers squad. BYU is led by senior QB Max Hall, who has had a terrific season for the Cougars. Hall threw for over 3300 yards this season and 30 touchdowns. To say he was the MVP of the Cougars this season is a gross understatement. He carried the team on his shoulders through thick and thin and is remembered most for leading BYU past Oklahoma to kick off the 2009 season. Losses against Florida State and TCU prevented BYU from reaching a BCS bowl this season. However, they must not take Oregon State too lightly as they are a prolific unit on the offensive side of the ball. Look for Jacquizz Rodgers to have a terrific game running the football against this BYU defense. He has been tremendous all season for the Beavers and will most certainly be a Heisman candidate next season. The key for Oregon State will be if QB Sean Canfield and WR James Rodgers can develop a rhythm throughout the course of the game as they have done all season. Canfield and Rodgers will attempt to expose the weaknesses of the BYU secondary, with Rodgers dashing across the middle of the field and generating a massive amount of yards after the catch. BYU will need to get pressure on Canfield and contain Jacquizz Rodgers in the backfield so that they may have their share of opportunities on the offensive side of the ball. Look for Hall to have a terrific football game in his final appearance as the BYU quarterback. I think Oregon State will do a great job at stopping the run and closing up Harvey Unga's cutback lanes at the line of scrimmage. Oregon State will do a great job at shutting down the gaps in between the tackles. However, with the absence of CB Tim Clark, the Beavers will be exposed over the middle of the field. This will allow Hall to find TE Dennis Pita often throughout the course of the game. One question will be if the Beavers will have their hearts set on winning this game knowing they were so close to a trip to Pasadena. I think they come out with a noble effort against a very talented and hardworking BYU squad. However, Max Hall will leave Las Vegas and BYU going out a winner. BYU wins 37-28.
Poinsettia Bowl: Utah vs. California
This is a battle of two teams that had such great potential entering the season. Utah was coming off last year's surprise victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and were certainly focused on repeating as Mountain West Champions. However, this was the year of TCU in the Mountain West as their stingy defense and powerful running game proved too much to handle for the Utes and for everyone else as well. Utah's only losses during the regular season were to TCU, Oregon, and BYU, the latter of which they suffered a devastating overtime loss thanks to the arm of Max Hall. Utah still had a decent year of college football, finishing 9-3 while riding the coattails of RB Eddie Wide. Wide would finish with over 1,000 yards rushing this season and 12 touchdowns. He will be the focal point of the Utah offense in their matchup with California. Cal has been one of the most disappointing teams in college football for several years now. And in a year where USC finally fell off their pedestal, Cal could not take advantage of such a golden opportunity and let conference games slip away from them. In pivotal games against Oregon and USC this season, they allowed 72 points and scored only 6. And after impressive victories over Arizona and Stanford, Cal concluded the season by traveling up to Washington and got spanked around by a final of 42-10. So to say that Cal has any momentum going into the Poinsettia Bowl this holiday season would be a great big lie. And we all know what Santa Claus thinks about liars. Utah will be going into this game with a vast amount of confidence and motivation to prove themselves to the nation. They will want to show why they shouldn't be one of the most underrated programs in the nation and are certainly aching to hand Cal another spanking to finish off their season. But I guess you can apply the same kind of logic to the Golden Bears as well. They have been looking for respect all season but have constantly shot themselves in the foot whenever they've had an opportunity to prove themselves. It's not like they're devoid of talent, it's just a case where there doesn't seem to be any kind of chemistry or balance. Should Cal find a way to put all their eggs in one basket, then you will see Kyle Riley take this offense and bring it to the promised land. You will see Shane Vereen grab the bull by the horns and shoot those gaps as if his life depended on it. And you will see the Cal defensive line penetrate the line of scrimmage to get pressure on Terrance Cain and destroy Eddie Wide in the backfield. All of this is dependent on what Cal team we see in this Poinsettia Bowl. If they come out playing with heart and intensity, then they will be a tough adversary for this coherent Utah team. And I have a funny feeling that we will see the very best Cal has to offer in this game. And in the end, the bears will really feel golden after the satisfying taste of Poinsettia Bowl glory. Cal wins 28-23.
Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs. Southern Methodist
Doesn't anyone else find it odd that Hawaii isn't playing in the Hawaii Bowl this year? If they didn't get trounced by Wisconsin in the final game of the season, then they would most definitely be hosting this bowl game right now. However, it's probably a good thing that Hawaii isn't hosting the Hawaii Bowl simply because last year did not fare so well against Notre Dame. With that being said, Hawaii is not playing in the Hawaii Bowl this year. Therefore, we should focus on Nevada and Southern Methodist. Nevada is coming into this game somewhat disappointed in themselves. They had a prime opportunity to cap off a stellar season by going into Boise State and knocking off the undefeated Broncos. Such a victory would have ruined Boise State's BCS chances and would have elevated Nevada to a possible New Years' Day bowl. Yet if one analyzes the season very carefully, one will see that Nevada started out 0-3 and went on an impressive 8-game winning streak before losing a tough one against Boise State. To say that their season has been a disappointment would be a slanting of the truth. Nevada could have faltered much earlier in the season. Instead they chose to persevere and now find themselves saying Aloha and going hula dancing. Their opponent for this Hawaii Bowl is the Southern Methodist Mustangs, a team that earned their bowl-eligibility with a victory over UTEP. The strength of their offense lies in the hands of RB Shawbrey McNeil, a man who carried the team on his back for pivotal stretches throughout the regular season. However, in games against two ranked opponents this season, McNeil was held under 100 yards rushing and was not very productive for the Mustang offense. So the game plan for Nevada on defense will be relatively simple. If they contain McNeil, then they will win this game. There is no doubt in my mind that Nevada will put points on the scoreboard against Southern Methodist. Their offensive arsenal contains one of the most lethal and dangerous running attacks in college football. QB Colin Kaepernick is a well-balanced quarterback. He can make good decisions in the pocket when he has to and can certainly scramble up the middle and down the sidelines when the pressure is on. Look to see a lot of that against Southern Methodist during this Hawaii Bowl. And look for Vai Taua to also get his share of touches and perhaps even break off a couple long runs for touchdowns. If Nevada plays with the same kind of fire in their bellies that they have had all season long, then this game won't even be close. Nevada wins 49-20.
Little Caesars Bowl: Marshall vs. Ohio
This was the game that Notre Dame supposedly turned down, as if they were too good to play against the Thundering Herd or the Bobcats. And even though they are too good for the likes of Marshall and Ohio, the fact that they shunned the bowl says a lot about what the team thought about their 6-6 season. But that's besides the point. The Little Caesars Bowl features a Marshall team that has been inconsistent all season long. They enter this game off a brutal loss to UTEP on the road, which means they are looking to right the ship and turn things around with a bowl victory. They certainly have the weapons to compete against the Ohio Bobcats. QB Brian Anderson threw for over 2500 yards and 14 touchdowns this season, showing how he can be a potent weapon for the Thundering Herd. Yet the key to Marshall's success will be RB Darius Marshall and how effective he will be coming back from that knee injury. In big games against Virginia Tech and West Virginia this season, Marshall was very efficient in running the football and was able to cause havoc between the tackles. But we shall see how much his knee hampers against the Ohio defense. Ohio is coming off a MAC championship loss to Central Michigan, a game in which they played solidly on the defensive side of the ball but simply could not establishing enough consistency to match Central Michigan on the scoreboard. I think it's safe to assume that Ohio will come out strong defensively against Marshall by containing their running game and stuffing the gaps at all times. The key will be if QB Theo Scott can make enough plays through the air to score touchdowns instead of field goals. If he is able to do that, then Ohio will pull away early and the Little Caesars bowl will turn into a nasty blowout. I think we'll see that kind of game as the Bobcats will be too much for the Thundering Herd to overcome. Ohio wins 33-17.
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
This is one of the more enticing games of the college Bowl Season. Pittsburgh is coming off a very tough loss to Cincinnati in the Big East Championship game. And the question going into this game will be whether or not Dave Wannstedt will have his team mentally focused and ready to go against a very talented North Carolina team. There is no doubt that Pittsburgh is one of the most talented teams in college football. They were ranked as high as 8th in the polls at one point during the season and certainly have the intensity and the heart to play with anyone in college football. But will their hearts be in the right place after such a devastating loss to Cincinnati? Will knowing they were so close to a BCS bowl game prevent them from focusing on the task at hand? This is a troubling issue for me as I write about this game. Both teams are very physical on both sides of the football and both like to pound the ball with their running backs while limiting their passing game. But I think the key to each team's success in this game will be which quarterback can make the most plays in the clutch. Everyone knows that freshman sensation Dion Lewis will be an unstoppable force for Pittsburgh all day long. And QB Bill Stull has done a great job recently of opening up the passing game to complement the effectiveness of Lewis in the backfield. Will he continue to find success against a North Carolina team that can fly to the quarterback and force key mistakes in the crucial portion of games? The same logic applies to QB T.J. Yates, who has been inconsistent all year as the leader of the North Carolina offense. He is going up against a defense that is relentless at the line of scrimmage and can certainly get inside a quarterback's head by causing turnovers and wreaking havoc in the backfield. Yates must hold on to the football in this game by practicing good ball security and making good throws to his receivers. Should he do that, then I think North Carolina will be able to hang with Pittsburgh throughout this game. But here's the fun part. I really think that Pittsburgh will be suffering a hangover from the Cincinnati loss, which will carry itself over to this game against North Carolina. And I think North Carolina will come out with all kinds of anger and motivation, looking to prove why they are a better team than the one we saw against N.C. State. Butch Davis will have his team fired up and ready to go against a hard-nosed, veteran Pittsburgh squad. They will be more focused on winning this football game than Pittsburgh and in the end, I think it will be too much for the Panthers to overcome. North Carolina wins 24-21.
Emerald Bowl: Boston College vs. USC
This has been an uncharacteristically disappointing season for the USC Trojans. I say that because we are so used to seeing them either destroying Big Ten teams in the Rose Bowl or occasionally playing for a national championship. This is the first time since 2001 that USC is not featured in a BCS bowl game. And guess what...2001 was Pete Carroll's first year as head coach. It really is just amazing to see what Carroll has accomplished at USC throughout the decade. But this was certainly not one of his best years as the Trojans' head coach. What we saw from USC throughout the course of the season was something that we haven't seen from them this entire decade. The defense completely fell apart in some critical games this season against Oregon and Stanford, where they gave up a combined total of 102 points and over 1,000 total yards. We just aren't used to seeing that kind of defensive ineptitude from USC. It really is baffling to me how a team known for recruiting the best athletes year in and year out can have such a massive breakdown defensively. It gets much worse for USC. Freshman QB Matt Barkley did not live up to the hype of someone like Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, or Mark Sanchez. He did not wield that Trojan sword with great success this season as the USC offense struggled at times and was ineffective at putting points on the scoreboard and inflicting their will on opposing defenses. We must also recognize that Barkley is not God incarnate, which is to say that he is just a freshman. He will learn a lot before this time and I'm sure USC will be right back on top before Barkley's time is done. But for now, USC must deal with Boston College in the Emerald Bowl. I really don't know how USC will respond to the idea of not being in a BCS bowl. I like to think that they are still college athletes who value the importance of any bowl game. As such, they should be able to treat Boston College in the same way they would treat Ohio State. I expect USC to rise to the challenge in this football game and to make a statement against a decent Boston College team. But I also think Boston College will come into the Emerald Bowl looking to make a statement as well. They will not want to lie down to a team that, quite frankly, is better than them on both sides of the ball. And I think if Boston College is going to win this game, RB Montel Harris needs to have the game of his life and break out a long run or two against those speedy linebackers patrolling the middle of the field. The Boston College offensive line is going to have their hands full with the USC front 7, which means it will be very hard for Harris to find his running lanes with consistency throughout the course of the game. Boston College will also have to open up their passing attack with QB Dave Shinskie. They will need their receivers to step up against the USC secondary, breaking free at the line of scrimmage and out-hustling them down the sidelines. And they will need luck to fall their way from time to time with some great catches and some penalties because let me tell you something, Pete Carroll will have his team ready to play. USC will not take Boston College lightly. They will come into this Emerald Bowl looking to prove why they still deserve to be considered one of the best teams in all of college football. I expect Joe McKnight to have a big game and I expect the USC offense to be more productive and efficient in moving the ball down the field. The USC defense will dictate the pace of the game by making plays at the point of attack and dominating at the line of scrimmage. This is a mismatch in all phases of the game, and I expect USC to bask in the realm of their Trojan glory. USC wins 38-17.
And that's it for now...Part II of the Bowl Preview will come next weekend. Stay tuned for my NFL Week 15 preview coming tomorrow. Til then...
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