This is the only Wild Card game not to be a rematch from Week 17. But that doesn't mean it's devoid of any suspense. There are many people out there who believe that this is an easy win for the Patriots. They are film believers in the art of Tom Brady and the wisdom of Bill Belichick. And why shouldn't they be? The New England Patriots were the team of the decade, winning 3 Super Bowls and very nearly obtaining perfection in 2007. And as long as Brady and Belichick are running things up in Foxboro, the Patriots will always stand a chance of winning a Super Bowl. But this is a new decade, which means that anything can happen on any given Sunday. The Patriots are no longer the team to beat in the AFC. They are vulnerable on both sides of the ball even with Brady as their quarterback. They have glaring weaknesses in the linebacking core and maintain a very inexperienced secondary. The Patriots are not the invincible warriors of 2007. And on Sunday, they will be facing a Ravens team that is slowly developing into an offensive juggernaut with Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and Willis McGahee.
The Ravens defense may not be as powerful or intimidating as it once was. But they are still a force to be reckoned with on a weekly basis. Ray Lewis is the unquestioned leader of this football team and seeks to play the game of his life every week. He is arguably the most passionate and intense football player in the NFL and is certainly capable of motivating his team to be the best that they can be. And even though time and aging have slowed Lewis down over the years, he is still a menace on the football field and remains the heart and soul of that Baltimore Ravens defense. He will have his defensive unit ready to play on Sunday against a Patriots offense reeling from the loss of Wes Welker. Welker's season-ending ACL injury against the Texans may have cost the Patriots a chance at a Super Bowl. Welker was an instrumental part of the Patriots' offensive game plan and it will be very hard to replace him over the course of the playoffs. There are some who believe that Julian Edelman will be as productive as Welker was in the slot position for the Patriots. But I beg to differ. Edelman does not have any playoff experience and it will show on Sunday against the Ravens. I'm sure that Brady will target him several times simply because throwing to the slot receiver is the key to their offensive success. But I think Edelman drops way too many balls over the course of the game, which will force Brady to spread the ball around to Randy Moss or Ben Watson. They might even have to put Moss in the slot, which will eliminate the deep threat and force the Ravens to play inside a lot more. It all depends on what kind of effort Edelman gives on Sunday and if he truly is the Wes Welker clone some are predicting him to be.
If it turns out that Edelman is not the second coming of Wes Welker, then Brady will have to look for other options along the sideline and over the middle. The Patriots had reasonable success when they moved Moss into the slot position when Welker was hurt at the beginning of the season. They may turn to that again on Sunday as they look to replace Welker's production in whatever way possible. Look for the Patriots to run the ball a little more, pounding it up the middle with Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. Also look for Brady to dish out some screen passes to Maroney and Faulk as the Patriots will try to grind it out against that Ravens defense. The key to the game will be if the offensive line can shield Brady from the Ravens pass rush. If it is true that Brady has 3 broken ribs and one broken finger, then he is going to be as fragile as an expensive piece of glass on Sunday. The Patriots cannot afford to have the pocket collapse on Brady. They will need to protect him as much as possible and ensure that he leaves Foxboro unscathed. The Patriots know that they will travel nowhere fast without Tom Brady, and the Ravens know this as well. Look for the Ravens to blitz heavily throughout the course of the game so as to constantly pursue an active pass rush on Brady. Look for them to stuff the middle and shut down the running game, which will limit the offensive balance of the Patriots and force them to throw the ball more. The Patriots are going to live and die on the arm of Brady during the 2010 playoffs. If the Ravens are effective in shutting down Randy Moss, then that will put the onus on other receivers to make big plays. I'm not sure the Patriots can compensate for both the loss of Welker and an ineffective Randy Moss. But if push comes to shove, who's going to bet against Tom Brady?
If we assume that Brady is going to have a terrific game throwing the football, then how will the Ravens respond offensively to match his output? The Patriots are returning Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren to anchor the middle of the defensive front. This means that the Ravens offensive line has to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, creating enough running lanes for Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. But that may not be enough to overmatch the strength and agility of Wilfork and Warren. In order for Rice and McGahee to be productive, they will need to be aggressive at the point of attack and shed tackles to generate yards after contact. They will need to cut through their running lanes and outhustle the Patriots at the line of scrimmage. And they will need to bounce off their linemen, using their speed and quickness to overmatch the Patriots linebacking core. If Wilfork and Warren are healthy, then they are going to be a dangerous force all day long for the Ravens offensive line. The key for the Ravens will be if their offensive line can contain their blocks away from the middle to generate production along the sidelines. If Rice and McGahee aren't able to create enough momentum outside the tackles, then the Ravens will have a tough day running the ball. It will force Joe Flacco to make some plays with his arm. And with all due respect to Flacco, he is not Tom Brady. Nor does he have an elite receiver who can open up the passing game when the running game is stifled. The Ravens will be starting Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason on Sunday. Mark Clayton is not Randy Moss and Derrick Mason is way past his prime. This is a Ravens team that is not pass-oriented simply because they have never been pass-oriented. The philosophy behind their success has always been running the football and playing good defense. They have a terrific running game with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. And their defense is still a very solid unit. But what happens if the Patriots break down that running game? What happens if Brady gets hot and the pace of the game starts to get out-of-control? These are questions the Ravens cannot answer because they are not a pass-oriented football team. And if Rice and McGahee aren't getting the tough yards and/or matriculating the ball down the field, then the Ravens will be hard-pressed to win the game through the air. Joe Flacco has not yet proven he can win a game through the air. If the game is thrust into his hands on Sunday, odds are the Patriots will get an easy win at home.
How will this game unfold? The Ravens shocked a lot of people last season when they advanced to the AFC Championship Game with victories over the Dolphins and Titans. In order to pull the same kind of magic this season, Joe Flacco has to be an efficient manager of the football game. He cannot make mistakes throwing the football and must allow for the Ravens to do what they do best. He is not supposed to be the hero of this football team and must leave it in the hands of Rice and McGahee to make it happen. With Wilfork and Warren returning to the defensive line, it's going to be very challenging for the Ravens to generate enough force at the line of scrimmage to overpower those two behemoths. I think the Patriots will be moderately successful in containing the Ravens' running attack. But I think Ray Rice will break free a few times, proving to be a thorn on the side of Bill Belichick and company. In the end, I think the Patriots get enough of a pass rush from Jerod Mayo and Jarvis Green to trap Flacco in the pocket and cause all kinds of havoc for the Ravens offensive line. I think the Patriots will do a great job at protecting Brady, allowing him to see the field and find Moss with ease throughout the course of the game. And I think Edelman settles down in the second half, catching enough balls to make the home crowd forget about Wes Welker. The Patriots will survive a tough battle with the Ravens. The question will be if they can survive the next rounds.
FINAL SCORE: PATRIOTS 24, RAVENS 16
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