The New York Jets can base their success on two things: they run the football very well and they play excellent defense. These are the two reasons why Rex Ryan thinks his team can represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Granted the only reason the Jets are in the playoffs is because the Colts gave up on 16-0, but that's an entirely different story. The Jets proved that they belong among the best with an impressive victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Mark Sanchez surprisingly displayed a maturity that has been uncharacteristic of him all season long. He managed the game very well and let the running game control the offensive production. He will need to be just as efficient on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers. The Jets match up very well with the Chargers and can cause havoc for them on both sides of the ball. The Jets love to pound the ball up the middle with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, something that the Chargers don't respond very well to. The Chargers are a more finesse defensive unit, relying on their pass rush to force mistakes and halt the production of opposing offenses. During the regular season, the Chargers were ranked 20th in stopping the run. This means that the Jets should have no problem manipulating the line of scrimmage to their advantage. With monsters like Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold anchoring the middle of the offensive line, the Jets certainly have a chance to be more physical than the Chargers in this game. This will put added pressure on Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to stuff the middle and plug up the running lanes, which is something very few teams have been able to do against the Jets. Should they find success, then the Jets will have a tough time generating a rhythm in this game because it will force Sanchez to chase the deep threat to Braylon Edwards way too often. Last time I checked, Edwards loves to either drop the ball or get thrown off his coverage very easily. He will have a tough time against Quentin Jammer on Sunday if the Jets are forced to call on him to make plays down the field. The strength of the Jets offense, besides their running game, is their ability to utilize Dustin Keller with dig routes over the middle or Jerricho Cotchery along the edge. They want Sanchez to manage the game well and nothing more. Anything else will be very disastrous, perhaps even costing the Jets a shot at the AFC Championship.
But let's think about the San Diego Chargers for a minute. This is a team that hasn't lost a game in three months. THREE MONTHS!!! That's a really long time in the NFL. Why haven't they lost a game in three months? Because they boast one of the more talented and cohesive units in the entire league. They are well-balanced on both sides of the football and do not shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. The Chargers are able to grind out victories, battling their opponent to the very end and always illustrating how they are the better team. It also helps that they have a perennial MVP candidate as their quarterback. There are many people out there who believe that Philip Rivers had a better season than Peyton Manning, who collected his 4th MVP award just the other day. When one looks at his statistics, one could easily build an argument for Rivers and showcase how he is the unquestioned leader of that football team. Rivers finished the season with over 4000 yards passing and 28 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. However, his best characteristic is how clutch he is when the game is on the line. Rivers is one of those quarterbacks who loves to capitalize on game-winning drives in the final two minutes. As I recall, he did it three times this year against the Raiders, Giants, and Bengals. But there have been many times in his career where Rivers has taken his team down the field and scored in the final two minutes. He doesn't miss a beat, which is something that only the elite quarterbacks are able to accomplish in this league. Rivers and the Chargers offense will have their hands full against all of Rex Ryan's schemes and blitzes on Sunday. Ryan will throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Chargers, making sure that Rivers doesn't beat him with the deep throw or establish a rhythm inside the pocket. In fact, the Jets should have no problem in containing the deep threat on Sunday. Those who go into Revis Island never come out alive. The same will be said about Vincent Jackson after this game. Revis has shut down every big-name receiver thrown his way this season. He held Chad Ochocinco to just 2 receptions for 28 yards in two games. And guess what, both catches came in last week's Wild Card contest. Revis should have won Defensive Player of the Year over Charles Woodson. But I think it's safe to say that Revis will be in the conversation for defensive accolades in many years to come. Revis will have no problem shutting down Vincent Jackson, which means that Rivers will look elsewhere to generate some offensive production.
The most important assets for the Chargers in this game will be Antonio Gates and Darren Sproles. Forget LaDainian Tomlinson. He will be like the worm at the end of a fishing pole, pounding it up the middle to deceive the Jets at the line of scrimmage. Look for Rivers to launch the playaction very early in this game as the Chargers will want to establish Sproles immediately out of the backfield. The Jets boast the best run defense in the NFL, which means that Tomlinson will have a hard time generating momentum at the line of scrimmage. There will be times when the Jets stifle the Chargers running game. That's just a given they will have to accept. What will kill the Jets defensively is the speed of Sproles out of the backfield; his ability to run along the sidelines and scamper out of the backfield will hamper the Jets for big plays early in the game. When Rivers discovers that the pocket is collapsing and that David Harris and Bart Scott are plugging up the middle of the field, he will dump it off to Sproles along the sidelines. This will force the Jets to react quickly, relying on their speed to catch up with Sproles. The problem for the Jets is that Sproles is deceptively fast. His cutback ability, combined with his intelligence as a running back, make him a very useful asset out of the backfield for the Chargers. But that's not all. If the Jets plug Kerry Rhodes to cover Antonio Gates, then they will be eaten alive over the middle of the field. The Jets cannot put Rhodes over Gates, who has a distinct height advantage and will certainly be more physical against Rhodes at the line of scrimmage. The Jets will not have to double cover Vincent Jackson because they know Revis will get the job done. This means they can commit Jim Leonhard to double coverage on Gates or use Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas as extra defenders at the line of scrimmage. The key to this game will be how well Rivers reacts to the pass rush and his inability to find Jackson with the deep ball. If the Jets are able to get significant pressure on him, it will force the Chargers to rethink their game plan and will most definitely eliminate any kind of rhythm.
In spite of how well the Jets have played defensively this year, they are going to have their hands full taking Rivers out of the game. Even though they have enough talent to blow past the Chargers at the line of scrimmage, they do not have the speed necessary to contain Darren Sproles. Nor do they have another shut-down corner that can contain Antonio Gates over the middle. Should the Jets successfully manage to patrol the middle of the field, it will put pressure on Malcolm Floyd to emerge as the deep threat along the sidelines. Floyd could very well be the decisive factor in this game, especially if the Jets are able to limit Rivers' options out of the pocket. Rivers will have no choice but to establish Floyd's presence as a capable receiver, one who will be able to make plays when he's called upon to do so. This will be a hard-fought game from start to finish. The Jets will bring their A-game to Qualcomm Stadium and will prove to be a thorn in the side of Norv Turner and company. With that being said, the Chargers have a lot more to play for than the Jets do right now. As Mike Francesca commented the other day, "the Jets are playing with house money right now." This means that no one expected them to get this far in the postseason. If one remembers correctly, Rex Ryan counted them out when they lost to the Falcons in Week 15 of the season. But here they stand today ready to do battle for a berth in the AFC Championship Game. It has been a very successful season for Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez. They are having fun on the field right now and it will show against the Chargers on Sunday.
With that being said, there is immense pressure on the Chargers to win now. LaDainian Tomlinson knows he is past the prime of his career, which means he wants a ring right now. Philip Rivers is emerging as one of the elite quarterbacks in this league and wants a Vince Lombardi trophy to validate his legacy. Norv Turner wants to lead his team to the promised land and certainly knows that he has the talent to do so. The Chargers finished the season riding high into the playoffs. And even though they will be facing a tough challenge from the Jets, deep down they know they have the better team and they will look to prove it on the field. Look for the Chargers to force enough turnovers from Sanchez, which will ultimately be the difference in this game. They will not fall for the trickery of Brad Smith out of the Wildcat and will not let Braylon Edwards beat them with the deep threat. They will control the pace of the game, with Rivers creating long, steady drives that will wear down the Jets defense and put more pressure on Sanchez to keep up with the Chargers on the scoreboard. When all is said and done, the Jets will put up a hell of an effort out West on Sunday. But the Chargers emerge victorious because of their unyielding desire to win and prove they are the best team in the NFL this year.
FINAL SCORE: CHARGERS 24, JETS 13
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