This game reflects the ultimate battle of wills: Offense vs. Defense, Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan, the powerhouse Colts against the upstart Jets for the right to go to Super Bowl XLIV. There are very few people who figured the Jets would make it this far off a 9-7 season. Hell, that number is probably close to zero. Yet here they stand on the eve of the AFC Championship Game, preparing to do battle with a quarterback who may go down as the best ever at his position. The only thing the Jets have is the confidence attributed to them through victories over the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Diego Chargers. That is what Rex Ryan preached all week to the media and that will be the key to a Jets victory on Sunday. Let's face it. The Colts are by far the better team on paper and should walk out of this game with an easy victory. So why are some experts predicting an upset the likes of which have remained unseen since the days of Joe Namath and Johnny Unitas? Why are some experts thinking that the Jets can walk into Lucas Oil Stadium, outduel the so-called "sheriff" in Peyton Manning, and advance to their first Super Bowl in forty years? Because a tidal wave of momentum rests on their side. Because the Jets believe they have the defensive arsenal capable of neutralizing Manning all day long. And because they have a power-running game that could take time off the clock and keep Manning off the field. The Jets are built to defeat the Colts, or at least post a significant challenge to their Super Bowl aspirations. There are some experts who are comparing this Jets playoff run to the New York Giants of two years ago. And in some ways, that is true. The Jets play extremely well on the defensive side of the ball and are able to get pressure on the quarterback. How did the Giants win in 2007? By having three pass rushers in Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck get to Brady over and over and over again. The Jets are going to need a pash rush to defeat Manning on Sunday. And while they are prolific at stopping the run and trapping receivers on the infamous Revis Island, do not expect Manning to falter on the precipice of a possible Super Bowl winning season.
Believe it or not, the Colts have something to prove in this game as well. They have been flying high under the radar all week, with the Jets doing most of the talking and the spotlight placed on their boisterous head coach. Everyone agrees that the only reason the Jets made the playoffs this year is because the Colts abandoned their shot at 16-0. They rested their starters in the third quarter of that Week 16 game and gave a early Christmas present to the city of New York. I know Jets fans are probably sick and tired of hearing how they eased their way into the playoffs. And the Jets would love nothing better than to show the world how they can beat Peyton Manning for a full 60 minutes rather than destroy Curtis Painter for half a game. But let's examine this from the Colts perspective? The Colts have shown their cards and have gone all in on a winning hand. They folded their chance of being considered the greatest team in NFL history in favor of a more lucrative prize. And now all their cards will be on the table for this AFC Championship Game. They will not take their foot off the pedal and are motivated to show the Jets how Christmas is over. GM Bill Polian and the entire Colts organization have so much riding on this game because they stated to their fans and to the rest of the football world that a Super Bowl title is more important than perfection. In order to validate their philosophy, they cannot stumble against the Jets on Sunday. They must take their show on the road to Miami, returning to the place where Manning won his first Super Bowl in 2006. The board is set for Manning to make his move, for the Colts to prove how their philosophy works and how all the skeptics and the naysayers can return to their impenetrable closets. This AFC Championship Game is the chess match of a lifetime. Who will survive the ultimate battle of wills?
Everybody knows the Jets will come out with an aggressive game plan defensively on Sunday. Yet the key to their success will be on the offensive side of the ball. This is the biggest game of Mark Sanchez's career, a phrase that continues to evolve on a weekly basis. He has been very efficient for the Jets throughout this postseason, managing the game very well and not turning the football over. In fact, I would argue how that is the main reason why the Jets have managed to last this long in the playoffs. I'm sure everyone has been waiting for Sanchez to screw up in a monumental way by either not securing the football or by throwing a crucial interception with the game on the line. Yet he has surprisingly done none of those things, emerging as a very calm and collected quarterback in the face of tremendous pressure to win in the playoffs. As a result, one could argue that Sanchez is the underrated factor in this game. In their win against the Bengals, Sanchez connected with Dustin Keller for a 45-yard touchdown that opened up the game for the Jets offensively. In their win against the Chargers, he found Keller again in the endzone off a Rivers interception, which changed the flow of the game and put the Jets in a very comfortable position offensively. Granted Sanchez did throw an interception against the Chargers. However, the ineptitude of Rivers and company to find any rhythm in the 2nd half saved Sanchez from making any costly mistakes. It would be very interesting if the Jets came out passing the ball on Sunday. No one expects them to do anything but pound the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. But what of Mark Sanchez? I don't think it's that inconceivable to turn the dogs loose and let Sanchez roam free in the pocket. It will catch the Colts off guard and force them to play a multi-faceted defensive game. Look for Sanchez to connect on short dig routes to Dustin Keller over the middle. But also expect him to look for Braylon Edwards down the field and Jerricho Cotchery running slant routes that will make for effective 10-12 yard gains.
The Jets know that they will have score at least 20 points to beat the Colts on Sunday. The only way that will happen is if Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer take chances with Sanchez in the pocket. I'm not arguing that they should completely abandon the run because that would be ludicrous. The Jets boast the best running attack in the NFL, which means the basis of their offensive game plan should be focused in between the tackles and up the middle of the field. They want to take away the pass rush of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis by utilizing Jones and Greene out of the backfield. Also, expect a lot of Brad Smith on Sunday. The Jets will look to confuse the Colts as much as possible with their offensive schemes. They want Gary Brackett to scramble out of coverage, forcing him to react quickly to different formations. But they want to overpower the Colts at the line of scrimmage, creating huge running lanes and matriculating the ball down the field in a timely fashion. The Jets will look to muster a similar offensive game plan to the one the Dolphins organized in Week 2 when they played the Colts. The Dolphins kept feeding the ball to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, holding onto the football for over 45 minutes. The reason they lost that game was because every time Manning had the ball, he led the Colts down the field and put touchdowns on the board. The Jets have a much better defense than the Dolphins and will be able to contain Manning at some points in this game. This means that the key for the Jets will be if they are dominant in controlling the time of possession. If the Jets hold on the football as much as possible and score touchdowns instead of field goals, then they will win this game by keeping Manning off the field and forcing him to make plays against their #1 ranked defense every time he touches the ball.
Experts are looking to promote this AFC Championship Game as a matchup between the Colts offense and the Jets defense. From a more singular perspective, they are billing it as a heavyweight bout between Peyton Manning and Darrelle Revis. This is going to be Revis's toughest assignment to date because he not only has to deal with the intelligence of Peyton Manning, but he also has to contain the NFL's best route runner in Reggie Wayne. Wayne has the ability to shift his body at the line of scrimmage, manipulating cornerbacks to a point where they lose control and break off the route. He can burn teams with the deep threat while also proving to be an effective receiver anywhere on the field. It is fair to say that the matchup between Darrelle Revis and Reggie Wayne will be the most compelling to watch on Sunday because Wayne will be able to outrun Revis at the point of attack, making cutbacks five or six yards off the line of scrimmage and forcing Revis to chase him all over the field. Yet there will be times when Revis controls Wayne at the line of scrimmage and prevents him from generating any momentum down the field. He will utilize Wayne to his advantage and dictate how often Manning looks his way on Sunday. And it is in these moments where the Jets defenders will have to come up big against the other weapons in the Colts offensive arsenal. Lito Sheppard must have the game of his life on Sunday in containing Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon. There is no doubt in my mind that Manning will look for all of these receivers, hoping to compensate for Wayne's inability to escape from Revis Island. Now the Jets will also use Revis in their coverage against Dallas Clark much in the same way they used him against Antonio Gates last week. It is in these moments where Manning will look for Reggie Wayne, which means that Sheppard and Kerry Rhodes will have to patrol the middle of the field with extreme caution. They will have to force the Colts receivers off their routes and make them break along the sidelines, providing Manning with a very slim window to throw the ball into. And of course, they will need to generate a pass rush.
How will the Jets generate a pass rush? By blitzing Peyton Manning to no end on Sunday. Rex Ryan is a coach who lives and dies on the blitz and he will attempt to establish dominance early by throwing Manning off his rhythm and forcing panic and chaos in the pocket. Yet one of the reasons why this is a compelling matchup is that Manning is very efficient when working against the blitz. The blitz doesn't phase him and he is just as lethal against that defensive package as he is against any other scheme. What does this mean for the Jets? It means that when Rex Ryan sends the full force of his defense upon Peyton Manning, they will need to bring him to the ground. It will take a full defensive effort to make sure that Manning is inefficient in the pocket because he doesn't miss his receivers whenever he throws the ball. Bart Scott and David Harris must seal the pocket and drag Manning to the ground. Kerry Rhodes and Justin Leohnard must step up and contain, which will force Manning to react indecisively in the pocket. It is very rare for Manning to have an inaccurate game throwing the football. The Jets were the beneficiaries of one of those games the last time these two teams met. Yet this is the AFC Championship Game, the time where quarterbacks step into the spotlight and write their own legacies. Manning is in the prime of his career and wants another Super Bowl to widen his legacy. Do not expect anything other than a big game from him on Sunday. Yet in order for the Jets to win this game, their cornerbacks will need to take the Colts receivers off their routes whenever they send a pass rush. They want Manning to miss his receivers and they want him to throw incompletions. This will lead to stalled drives and plenty of opportunities for the Jets to make some noise in Lucas Oil Stadium. Anything other than their A-game will be detrimental to their chances of going to the Super Bowl.
How will this game unfold? As I mentioned before, there are a lot of experts and fans out there drawing parallels between this Jets team and the Giants team of two years ago. Yet if I were to compare them to any team, I would compare them to last year's Baltimore Ravens team that went to the AFC Championship Game and lost to the Steelers. Just look at the similarities between this year's Jets team and last year's Ravens team: rookie quarterback (Mark Sanchez vs. Joe Flacco), rookie head coach (Rex Ryan vs. John Harbaugh), stout defense and efficient running attack. All of these reflect the style and substance in which both teams were able to produce results and find success. And just like last year's Ravens team, I think the cinderella story of the New York Jets comes to an end on Sunday. I know I've been predicting it to end for a couple weeks now only to have my predictions foiled by outstanding defensive play and good decisions from the quarterback. Yet I think the Jets will revert back to the team that started 4-6. They will be unable to stop Manning with the game on the line as he will make plays to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon for big plays over the middle and along the sidelines. The Colts will pound the ball at the goal line with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown and will put their share of points on the scoreboard against this Jets defense. Manning will have enough time in the pocket to find his receivers as the Jets pass rush will come up short in the clutch. The Jets will make it interesting by hammering the Colts at the line of scrimmage with terrific play from their offensive line and a balanced running attack. But I think that the pressure of winning the big game will finally get to Sanchez as he will make one too many mistakes in this contest. The Colts will shut the mouths of Jets fans everywhere on Sunday by proving to everyone how the Jets cannot defeat them after a full 60 minutes. And in the end, Peyton Manning will be planning another trip to Miami, with visions of the Lombardi Trophy dancing on his head.
FINAL SCORE: COLTS 23, JETS 13
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