What is the one thing that people remember about the 2009 season for the Indianapolis Colts? It's not that the Colts won the AFC South with a league-best 14-2 record. Nor is it the fact that Peyton Manning collected his 4th MVP award in lieu of making another run at a Super Bowl title. What people remember about the Colts this season is the fact that they spit in the eye of perfection. When they pulled their starters out of their Week 16 game against the Jets, the Colts made a statement by saying that a Super Bowl title was more important than going undefeated. GM Bill Polian and Head Coach Jim Caldwell made it clear that the Colts franchise is more concerned about winning the big game as opposed to winning every game. But therein lies the paradox. In order for the Colts to win the big game, don't they have to win every game? Recent history has suggested that teams are offering justification for not giving their best effort in every game on their schedule. Once they have sewn up their division and a playoff spot, they take their foot off the gas and allow other teams to have the glory for the rest of the season. While that logic is normally acceptable when a team has 1 or 2 losses and isn't playing for a chance at history, the way the Colts have approached this newest postseason run has irked many of their fans and supporters. When the Colts pulled their starters in Week 16, their fans were not exactly thrilled to see Curtis Painter taking snaps and literally throwing away the game and a chance at perfection. This team didn't care about being the absolute best in NFL history. Yet they are going all-in with the most lucrative hand they have ever been dealt. If it doesn't result in Peyton Manning hoisting another Vince Lombardi trophy, then heads are going to roll in Indianapolis. The Colts will be scrutinized forever and placed into the realm of football oblivion. They realize the pressure they have cast upon themselves, which is perhaps greater than the pressure of going undefeated. They need to finish this season 17-2. And it all starts tonight against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an impressive victory against the New England Patriots last Sunday. They dominated Brady and company from start to finish and never let them breathe a sigh of relief. Ray Rice set the tone for the rest of the game with an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage. He would finish with 22 carries for 159 yards and solidified himself as the primary offensive weapon for this Ravens squad. The Ravens defense showed up in a big way, forcing four turnovers from the Patriots offense and getting pressure on Brady all day long. The Ravens put a dagger through the heart of the Brady-Belichick dynasty last Sunday, showing everyone why they deserve to be in the playoffs this year. They now have a chance to ruin another Peyton Manning Super Bowl run and will embrace this opportunity ten-fold on Saturday night. They know they have to bring their A-game to the table because anything less will result in a tasteless defeat. The Colts cannot take the Ravens lightly in this game. While it is true that the Colts have had the Ravens' number for a very long time, the Ravens are an extremely hot team right now. They believe they can play with the very best in the game and know they have the talent and desire to make a run at the Super Bowl this year. The Colts know they will have to be more physical than the Ravens on Saturday night. They can't afford to come out rusty because they know the Ravens love the art of smash-mouth football. They will punch people in the mouth rather than juggle them at the line of scrimmage. The Colts understand that they have to develop a rhythm early in this game if they are going to catch the Ravens off guard. Lucky for them, they have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback who will make sure that happens.
The Colts have assured everyone that they are crisp and ready for a deep run in the playoffs. Jim Caldwell and Peyton Manning have told the media how the offense and defense scrimmaged each other for three days straight and how these last two weeks have featured some of their best practices ever. That's all well and good. But practice sessions are not real game-time situations. Practicing against the Colts' scrubs is not the same as practicing against the Ravens 1st team. We shall see on Saturday night if those excellent practices result in a victory. With all that being said, everyone knows the game rests in the hands of Peyton Manning. Every aspect of the Ravens defensive game plan will be built around #18 and what he does with the football. To say that they have to generate a pass rush and disrupt Manning's rhythm would be an understatement of what they have to accomplish in this game. While it is true that they need to get a pass rush, they also have to drag Manning to the ground and force sacks. Everyone knows that whenever Manning has the football and is scampering around in the pocket, he is a dangerous threat. There is perhaps no defensive scheme you can muster that will stop Manning from delivering the football accurately and in plenty of time. So how will the Ravens try to stop him? By not letting him have the football.
The Ravens will want to keep Manning off the field as much as possible in this game. Their defensive backs need to get pressure on the Colts' receivers at the line of scrimmage, establishing their aggressiveness and throwing them off their routes as much as possible. This will force Manning to sit in that pocket and look around for longer periods of time. If he can't find anyone, he will most likely throw the ball away, which will lead to stalled drives and a change in momentum. But if Haloi Ngata and Trevor Pryce can manipulate the line of scrimmage and shed the blocks of Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem, it will force Manning out of the pocket and make him throw the ball on the run. Last time I checked, Manning is not a well-balanced quarterback. His strengths emerge when he has enough time in the pocket to locate his receivers and throw the ball with precision. If the Ravens can take Manning out of his comfort zone, then they will control the pace of the game by generating errant throws and possible turnover scenarios. The most important aspect of this game will be how long Peyton Manning has the football. If the Colts are able to dominate the time of possession, then the Ravens will be hamstrung into scoring every time they have the football. Everyone knows that Manning will make sure the Colts get on the scoreboard. But the Ravens would love nothing more than to limit his production by keeping him off the field.
And what will the Ravens do when Manning is off the field? They will pound the ball with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Both running backs are the source of the Ravens' offensive power, absolutely shredding the Patriots last Sunday and illustrating why they are a one-two combo that can give the Colts fits all night long. The strength of the Colts defense is their ability to rush the quarterback. They have two of the league's best pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who can shed their blocks better than anyone and can generate havoc in the backfield. Yet both will be put to the test on Saturday night because the Ravens will not be looking to throw the ball in this game. Joe Flacco only passed the ball ten times last weekend, completing four passes for 34 yards and throwing an interception. Four completions for 34 yards. Isn't the NFL supposed to be a passing league now? There is no evidence to the contrary in Baltimore as the Ravens wear down opposing defenses with Rice and McGahee. They didn't need to pass the ball last week because they knocked the Patriots out in the opening minutes of their epic boxing match. With Flacco's lingering hip injury, which caused him to stand on the entire plane ride to Indianapolis, look for the Ravens to establish the run very early in this game. The Colts defense was ranked 24th in stopping the run this year, which means that the Ravens should have an easy time pounding it up the middle with Rice and attacking the outside with McGahee. In order for the Colts to neutralize both backs, Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson have to stuff the middle and force some cutbacks along the edges. Gary Brackett has to attack the line of scrimmage with force, harnessing his aggression towards chasing down Rice and McGahee. The Colts know the Ravens will limit Flacco in this game, which means that receivers like Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason will be insignificant factors in terms of offensive production. But even though the Ravens will establish the run early, that doesn't mean Flacco won't throw the ball at all. The Colts have to watch the middle of the field as Flacco will look to find Todd Heap running over the middle or Demetrius Williams anchoring the slot. But if the Colts are able to stop Rice and McGahee in this game, then the Ravens don't stand a chance of moving on to the AFC Championship.
This is going to be a very competitive game from start to finish. Even though the Ravens never actually beat the Colts, they always play them close to the chest. And guess what, the Ravens have very little pressure to deal with because there aren't a lot of people who expect them to win this game. Every ounce of pressure, every seed of trepidation, rests in the hands of the Colts. As a result, the Ravens will come out playing loose and having fun. Can we say the same about the Colts? History has told us that whenever the Colts come off a bye week, they start out flat and often have to play from behind. Will tonight's game be any different? I think it will. The Colts have a lot to prove this postseason. They want to illustrate to their fans how they made the right choice in resting their starters. They are facing a Ravens team that is playing their best right now, running the football hard and playing excellent defense. This will not be an easy one for the Colts. They will be hard-pressed to shut down Rice and McGahee, both of whom will keep the Ravens alive for the better half of this game. But the Colts should have no problem stopping Flacco, who is battling an injury and doesn't have the receivers necessary to create a proper balance between run and pass. And even though the Ravens have been playing well defensively, they are still very suspect in big-time situations. The Ravens defense might be able to contain Manning for the first half of the game. But when it comes to do-or-die time in the second half, look for Manning to read the blitz comfortably and to dump the ball off to either Pierre Garcon in the screen or Dallas Clark over the slot. The wild card in this game will be whether or not Joseph Addai and Donald Brown can get yards after contact. They will take a pounding from Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs in between the tackles. But if they can break free for some extra yards, then that will take pressure off Manning and allow for the Colts to open up the playbook. The Ravens will come out with a superior effort on Saturday night. But the Colts are the more talented team and in the end, Peyton Manning will prevail for at least one more week.
FINAL SCORE: COLTS 24, RAVENS 19
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